IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matcom/v231y2025icp1-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transmission dynamics of dengue with asymptomatic infection and a case study in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Ren, Huarong
  • Xu, Rui

Abstract

Dengue is a serious global public health crisis. The majority of dengue infections are asymptomatic, which makes disease control difficult. In this paper, a host–vector model considering asymptomatic infection and extrinsic and intrinsic incubation periods is developed to simulate the transmission pattern of dengue. The basic reproduction number is calculated by using the renewal equation method. The global threshold dynamics is established by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and using LaSalle’s invariance principle. The model is validated by fitting it to 2023 dengue epidemic data in Bangladesh. The fitting results show that the basic reproduction number is 4.1621 in the absence of control measures, in which contributions of asymptomatic infection and symptomatic infection account for 65% and 35%, respectively. In addition, through sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations, the effects of control measures and asymptomatic infection on basic reproduction number and transmission dynamics of dengue are clarified. The results show that (1) when the infectivity of asymptomatic individuals is more than 0.6 times that of symptomatic individuals, it is necessary to take measures to control the transmission risk of asymptomatic individuals; (2) the mortality rate of mosquito is the most critical factor in controlling dengue; (3) the mosquito density threshold for preventing mass transmission of dengue is 0.5199.

Suggested Citation

  • Ren, Huarong & Xu, Rui, 2025. "Transmission dynamics of dengue with asymptomatic infection and a case study in Bangladesh," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:231:y:2025:i:c:p:1-18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2024.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475424004749
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.matcom.2024.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:231:y:2025:i:c:p:1-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.