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Mathematical modeling and parameter estimation of unemployment with the impact of training programs

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  • Al-Maalwi, Raneah
  • Al-Sheikh, Sarah
  • Ashi, H.A.
  • Asiri, Sharefa

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to develop and analyze a mathematical model that represents the problem of unemployment in poor countries with limited availability of jobs. We are interested in studying the effect of training programs on the model’s dynamics. These training programs aim to improve the skills of unemployed people, contributing to a reduction of the unemployment rate. The model consists of a system of four ordinary differential equations; two equilibria of the model are found: one of which is the employment free equilibrium and the other corresponds to the presence of employment. The existence and stability analysis of both equilibria depend on the basic reproduction number which is found using the method of next generation matrix. However, this number depends on the model parameters which are usually unknown. Hence, we propose to estimate them using the modulating function-based method. Moreover, we study the existence of transcritical bifurcation with the rate of training as a bifurcation parameter. Finally, we support our qualitative results using numerical simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Maalwi, Raneah & Al-Sheikh, Sarah & Ashi, H.A. & Asiri, Sharefa, 2021. "Mathematical modeling and parameter estimation of unemployment with the impact of training programs," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 705-720.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:182:y:2021:i:c:p:705-720
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2020.11.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anibal Galindro & Delfim F. M. Torres, 2017. "A simple mathematical model for unemployment: a case study in Portugal with optimal control," Papers 1801.00058, arXiv.org.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva Kaslik & Mihaela Neamţu & Loredana Flavia Vesa, 2021. "Global Stability Analysis of a Five-Dimensional Unemployment Model with Distributed Delay," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-15, November.
    2. Njike-Tchaptchet, Eric Rostand & Tadmon, Calvin, 2023. "Mathematical modeling of the unemployment problem in a context of financial crisis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 241-262.
    3. Phi-Hung Nguyen & Jung-Fa Tsai & Ihsan Erdem Kayral & Ming-Hua Lin, 2021. "Unemployment Rates Forecasting with Grey-Based Models in the Post-COVID-19 Period: A Case Study from Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-27, July.
    4. Pushkar Kumar Singh & Kusum Lata & Arvind Kumar Singh & Arvind Kumar Misra, 2023. "Modeling the effect of unemployment augmented industrialization on the control of unemployment," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 587-600, January.

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