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Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Dao Hua
  • Yip, Tsz Leung
  • Ng, Chiu-On

Abstract

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Dao Hua & Yip, Tsz Leung & Ng, Chiu-On, 2009. "Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 643-650, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:marpol:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:643-650
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Ching-Pong Poo & Tsz Leung Yip, 2019. "An optimization model for container inventory management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 273(1), pages 433-453, February.
    2. Rittichainuwat, Bongkosh N., 2013. "Tourists' and tourism suppliers' perceptions toward crisis management on tsunami," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-121.

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