Establishment of an inter-provincial compensation system for farmland protection in China: A framework from zoning-integrative transferable development rights

The Chinese government is designating protection zones for permanent basic farmland (PBF) to ensure a stable grain supply. However, the disparity between protection responsibilities and economic benefits under traditional control methods leads to suboptimal effectiveness. The Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) program is a vital compensation tool for global conservation efforts and plays a key role in the Chinese government's urgent initiative to create a nationwide compensation mechanism for farmland protection and to enhance coordinated regional development. In this study, we propose the integration of the PBF delineation system and the TDR program to establish an inter-provincial compensation system using a zoning-integrative TDR framework under the coupled scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSPs-RCPs scenarios). Subsequently, we explore inter-provincial compensation zones and reciprocal relationships for TDR. The results indicate that China should maintain 111 and 99 million hectares of PBF in 2035 and 2050, respectively. By 2035, there will be 13 provinces sending and 18 receiving PBF through TDR, and by 2050, Shaanxi Province will have transitioned from being a receiving to a sending region. Ultimately, inter-provincial compensation relationships are determined based on simulated future grain transport patterns. Through reciprocal compensations, the national Gini coefficient is projected to decrease by 0.04 and 0.03 in 2035 and 2050, respectively, indicating that compensation promotes fairness in inter-provincial socio-economic development. This study contributes to the nation's objectives of ensuring grain security, promoting social equity, and protecting high-quality farmland.