Can urban low-carbon transformation affect the prices of its industrial land? An empirical study based on spatial regression discontinuity

Although the effects of the low-carbon city pilot policy (LCCP) have been extensively studied in recent years, there is a paucity of literature discussing its impact on industrial land prices. To support China's pursuit of dual carbon goals and accelerate the construction of low-carbon cities, this study utilizes micro-level land transaction data and employs spatial regression discontinuity to elucidate the micro-mechanisms underlying LCCP's influence on local industrial land prices. Our findings reveal that LCCP significantly elevates industrial land prices in pilot cities. Specifically, under a local linear benchmark regression with a 10 km bandwidth, the average treatment effect of LCCP on industrial land prices amounts to 15.1 %, translating into an annual growth rate of up to 2.16 %. This phenomenon arises because LCCP restricts the leeway of local governments in enforcing environmental regulations, particularly when environmental indicators are integral to official performance evaluations. Consequently, local officials are incentivized to pursue political advancement by tightening industrial land transfer policies, thereby raising prices and mitigating pollution consequences associated with the 'land-driven development' paradigm. This study offers a novel perspective on the nexus between environmental regulation and government land transfer behavior, while also serving as a valuable reference for integrating low-carbon development principles into land use policy reforms and advancing China's dual carbon goals.