Road to the city: Impact of land expropriation on farmers’ urban settlement intention in China

The gains and losses of farmers’ welfare brought by China’s land expropriation have been of broad concern, but little literature has focused on the motivation of land-lost farmers to settle in cities. Although the Chinese government has implemented a series of major strategies influencing land-lost farmers’ migration, the citizenization of rural migrants has always been a challenge. Using the data from 2016 China’s Labor-force Dynamic Survey (CLDS), this paper discovers that land expropriation strengthens land-lost farmers’ willingness toward urban settlement. Two underlying mechanisms that may influence the decision of land-lost farmers to settle in cities are revealed: positive economic factors and negative social-cultural factors. The economic incentives caused by land compensation can promote the probability of farmers’ urban settlement intention. However, farmland loss also brought an increased employment risk for farmers. Besides, after the land expropriation, the land-lost farmers have more frequent contact with their old neighbors. These social-cultural factors would hinder the farmers’ willingness toward urban settlement. Our findings are robust using both Instrumental variable (IV) estimation and the propensity score matching (PSM) method. These findings provide a deeper understanding of the economic and social consequences of land expropriation policies. In addition to land expropriation, more attention should be paid to the resettlement of land-lost farmers.