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Does oil really curse democracy? A long-run time-series analysis of 127 countries

Author

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  • O’Connor, Kelsey J.
  • Blanco, Luisa R.
  • Nugent, Jeffrey B.

Abstract

The resource curse is a topic studied intensively in both economics and political science. Much of the focus is now on whether oil affects democratic institutions. We further the debate on this aspect through the use of both additional measures of democracy and multiple time-series estimation strategies. We find no robust long-run effect of oil abundance on any of the following measures of democracy: Polity, Polcon, Civil Liberties, or Political Rights, over the period 1974–2012. We use different country and period samples to respond to the findings of others suggesting that the effects of oil abundance may differ between Latin America, the Middle East, mature oil producers, or that they become significantly negative only post-1980. In each case we still do not find a robust relationship. We emphasize long-run effects not only because they match the slow pace of institutional change, but also because they are consistent even in the presence of reverse causality.

Suggested Citation

  • O’Connor, Kelsey J. & Blanco, Luisa R. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2018. "Does oil really curse democracy? A long-run time-series analysis of 127 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 264-277.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:264-277
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.03.012
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Jilin & Sim, Nicholas & Yan, Wenshou & Li, Yanyun, 2020. "Trade uncertainty, income, and democracy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 21-31.
    2. Bergougui, Brahim & Murshed, Syed Mansoob, 2020. "New evidence on the oil-democracy nexus utilising the Varieties of Democracy data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Njangang, Henri & Asongu, Simplice A. & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Nounamo, Yann & Kamguia, Brice, 2022. "Governance in mitigating the effect of oil wealth on wealth inequality: A cross-country analysis of policy thresholds," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Ngassam, Sylvain B. & Asongu, Simplice A. & Ngueuleweu, Gildas Tiwang, 2024. "A revisit of the natural resource curse in the tourism industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Klepikov, Vladimir Pavlovich & Klepikov, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 2020. "Quantitative approach to estimating crude oil supply in Southern Europe," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Alex O. Acheampong & Janet Dzator & Matthew Abunyewah & Michael Odei Erdiaw-Kwasie & Eric Evans Osei Opoku, 2023. "Sub-Saharan Africa’s Tragedy: Resource Curse, Democracy and Income Inequality," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 471-509, August.
    7. repec:aly:journl:202192 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bildirici, Melike E. & Gokmenoglu, Seyit M., 2020. "Precious metal abundance and economic growth: Evidence from top precious metal producer countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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