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Time-varying co-movement of the prices of three metals and oil: Evidence from recursive cointegration

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  • Mei-Se, Chien
  • Shu-Jung, Chang Lee
  • Chien-Chiang, Lee

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the continuous and time-varing long-run relationships among three metals’ prices, oil price, and the US dollar exchange rate. The recursive cointegration is applied to trace the dynamic linkages. The empirical evidence is follows. First, the results of the recursive trace statistics display one significant and strong conitegration among the gold price and the other variables over much of the period after 1995, and that the European sovereign debt crisis caused a closer linkage from 2010 to 2012. Second, rising gold prices increase silver and copper prices in the long run and are also a long-run leading indicator of silver and copper prices, but their function as a leading signal becomes unstable and weaker after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Finally, the long-run relationship between oil and gold prices is an inverse interaction before 2003, but then turns uncertain after 2003, and there is no long-run causality between the two prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mei-Se, Chien & Shu-Jung, Chang Lee & Chien-Chiang, Lee, 2018. "Time-varying co-movement of the prices of three metals and oil: Evidence from recursive cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 186-195.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:186-195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.03.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Raza Syed Ali & Shah Nida & Ali Muhammad & Shahbaz Muhammad, 2021. "Do Exchange Rates Fluctuations Influence Gold Price in G7 Countries? New Insights from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 24(2), pages 37-57.
    2. Damilola ABOLUWODI & Bomi NOMLALA & Paul-Francois MUZINDUTSI, 2022. "The COVID-19 Crisis and Interaction between the JSE, Real Estate, Energy, Commodity and Cryptocurrency Markets," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 6(1), pages 55-76.
    3. He, Kaijian & Tso, Geoffrey K.F. & Zou, Yingchao & Liu, Jia, 2018. "Crude oil risk forecasting: New evidence from multiscale analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 574-583.
    4. Su, Chi Wei & Song, Xin Yue & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2024. "Is copper a safe haven for oil?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Alameer, Zakaria & Elaziz, Mohamed Abd & Ewees, Ahmed A. & Ye, Haiwang & Jianhua, Zhang, 2019. "Forecasting gold price fluctuations using improved multilayer perceptron neural network and whale optimization algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 250-260.
    6. Chen, Ying & Zhu, Xuehong & Li, Hailing, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty on non-ferrous metal market: Based on quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    7. Corbet, Shaen & Dowling, Michael & Gao, Xiangyun & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian & Vigne, Samuel A., 2019. "An analysis of the intellectual structure of research on the financial economics of precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Li, Wenlan & Cheng, Yuxiang & Fang, Qiang, 2020. "Forecast on silver futures linked with structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Wang, Yilei & Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty respond to the global oil price fluctuations? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Rabeh Khalfaoui & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Adel Al-Qadasi & Sami Ben Jabeur, 2022. "Dynamic causality interplay from COVID-19 pandemic to oil price, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 105-143, June.
    11. Fernandez, Viviana & Pastén-Henríquez, Boris & Tapia-Griñen, Pablo & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2023. "Commodity prices under the threat of operational disruptions: Labor strikes at copper mines," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    12. Raggad, Bechir & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Gold and crude oil: A time-varying causality across various market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    13. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    14. Martí-Ballester, Carmen-Pilar, 2024. "Financial performance of mutual and pension funds focused on the natural resources sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Umar, Zaghum & Nasreen, Samia & Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Exploring the time and frequency domain connectedness of oil prices and metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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