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Quantile causality between gold commodity and gold stock prices

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  • Reboredo, Juan C.
  • Ugolini, Andrea

Abstract

We found mixed evidence regarding quantile causality from gold commodity to gold stock returns for global, regional and individual country gold stock price indices. More specifically, gold prices Granger-caused Australian gold stock returns in all quantiles, but there was no quantile causality for either gold stock returns for companies located in the Europe-Middle East-Africa regions or the upper quantiles of companies located in America. In contrast, we found consistent evidence of quantile causality from gold stock returns to gold prices. These results would indicate that gold price shocks do not translate directly into wealth shocks for gold companies and that investors and risk managers could use the information regarding gold commodity and gold stock prices to improve decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2017. "Quantile causality between gold commodity and gold stock prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 56-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:56-63
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.05.013
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    3. Troster, Victor & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2019. "A quantile regression analysis of flights-to-safety with implied volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 482-495.
    4. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Nguyen, Quynh Nga & Bedoui, Rihab & Majdoub, Najemeddine & Guesmi, Khaled & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Hedging and safe-haven characteristics of Gold against currencies: An investigation based on multivariate dynamic copula theory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Ying & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Effects of non-ferrous metal prices and uncertainty on industry stock market under different market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah & Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2018. "Testing the predictability of commodity prices in stock returns: A new perspective," Working Papers 061, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    8. Otero, Luis A. & Reboredo, Juan C., 2018. "The performance of precious-metal mutual funds: Does uncertainty matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 13-22.
    9. Sanjay Sehgal & Neharika Sobti & Florent Diesting, 2021. "Who leads in intraday gold price discovery and volatility connectedness: Spot, futures, or exchange‐traded fund?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1092-1123, July.
    10. Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Salah Uddin, Gazi, 2020. "U.S. equity and commodity futures markets: Hedging or financialization?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Lucey, Brian M. & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2021. "Re-examining the real option characteristics of gold for gold mining companies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Baur, Dirk G. & Prange, Philipp & Schweikert, Karsten, 2021. "Flight to quality – Gold mining shares versus gold bullion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Awodumi, Olabanji B. & Abodunde, Temitope T., 2019. "Analysing the gold-stock nexus using VARMA-BEKK-AGARCH and Quantile regression models: New evidence from South Africa and Nigeria," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 348-362.
    14. Bouri, Elie & Jalkh, Naji & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Commodity volatility shocks and BRIC sovereign risk: A GARCH-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 385-392.
    15. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal, 2022. "Dependence between oil price changes and sectoral stock returns in Pakistan: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(2), pages 315-331, March.
    16. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O. & Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2019. "Testing the predictability of commodity prices in stock returns of G7 countries: Evidence from a new approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gold; Gold mining stocks; Quantile regression; Granger non-causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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