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Real option in action: An example of flexible decision making at a mine operational level

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  • Ajak, Ajak Duany
  • Topal, Erkan

Abstract

Flexibility and operational adaptability are essential for long term corporate success and real option (RO) appears suitable for analysing risky projects. Nevertheless, its application in engineering design has been slow-moving compared to financial uses. Therefore, there is a compelling argument for using visual, intuitive and transparent models, such as the binomial decision tree, which has the potential to eliminate decision maker apprehension and improve RO use in engineering design and decision making. This paper reviews RO applications in mining projects and proposes a new methodology to explore technical applications of RO in mine design and decision making at the mine operational level. The research will investigate the suitability of using the RO method at the mine operational level where production decisions are made frequently, rather than organisational strategies that are reviewed after several years. The proposed approach is applied to a case study. This will demonstrate how RO can be used in designing multiple pits in multi-zone ore deposits to create a switching option between pits regarding changing ore grades and fluctuating commodity prices. The main rationale of this option involves deferring waste materials by switching mining activities from a high to low strip ratio pit. This creates a choice between using new RO thinking and the traditional methodology. The option is analysed using the binomial decision tree. The results summarised in this paper׳s conclusion reveal that the project׳s value increased considerably when flexibility was included in the mine design. These increases in project value were between eight to 15 per cent, depending on the number of flexible options incorporated into the design.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajak, Ajak Duany & Topal, Erkan, 2015. "Real option in action: An example of flexible decision making at a mine operational level," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 109-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:109-120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2015.04.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dimitrakopoulos, Roussos G. & Abdel Sabour, Sabry A., 2007. "Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 116-125, September.
    2. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ajak, Ajak Duany & Lilford, Eric & Topal, Erkan, 2018. "Application of predictive data mining to create mine plan flexibility in the face of geological uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 62-79.
    3. Jorge Tarifa-Fernández & Ana María Sánchez-Pérez & Salvador Cruz-Rambaud, 2019. "Internet of Things and Their Coming Perspectives: A Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, June.
    4. Miranda, Oscar & Brandão, Luiz E. & Lazo Lazo, Juan, 2017. "A dynamic model for valuing flexible mining exploration projects under uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 393-404.
    5. Siña, Matías & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio, 2019. "Real option valuation of open pit mines with two processing methods," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 30-39.
    6. Acquah-Andoh, Elijah & Putra, Herdi A. & Ifelebuegu, Augustine O. & Owusu, Andrews, 2019. "Coalbed methane development in Indonesia: Design and economic analysis of upstream petroleum fiscal policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 155-167.
    7. Kuangyuan Zhang & Richard Olawoyin & Antonio Nieto & Andrew N. Kleit, 2018. "Risk of commodity price, production cost and time to build in resource economics," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 2521-2544, December.
    8. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    9. Linder, Eric & Marbuah, George, 2019. "The cost of transparency: Stock market reactions to introduction of the Extractive Sector Transparency Measures Act in Canada," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Del Castillo, M. Fernanda & Dimitrakopoulos, Roussos, 2019. "Dynamically optimizing the strategic plan of mining complexes under supply uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 83-93.
    11. Mesias Alfeus & James Collins, 2023. "A novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics through options pricing analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    12. Kim, Donghyun & Shin, Yong Hyun & Yoon, Ji-Hun, 2024. "The valuation of real options for risky barrier to entry with hybrid stochastic and local volatility and stochastic investment costs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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