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Where is the EU economy headed? The international dimension

Author

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  • Bertoldi, Moreno
  • Eriksgård, Annika
  • Orsini, Kristian
  • Pfeiffer, Philipp

Abstract

Since 2020, the EU economy has been hit by a number of external shocks that have had a major impact on growth, employment and inflation. As the outlook for the world remains highly uncertain, international conditions are likely to continue to affect the EU’s economic performance until a more stable equilibrium is reached. The question is in which direction and by how much? This article presents three possible scenarios (baseline, adverse, and benign), which provide some impact quantification through the use of the European Commission’s Global Multicountry model, and considers the potential implications of these scenarios on where the EU economy is headed. The final part of the article discusses how the EU, by better reconciling its domestic and foreign agenda, can play a more proactive role in determining international conditions, leading to more favourable equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertoldi, Moreno & Eriksgård, Annika & Orsini, Kristian & Pfeiffer, Philipp, 2023. "Where is the EU economy headed? The international dimension," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 817-832.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:45:y:2023:i:4:p:817-832
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    2. Bertoldi, Moreno & Orsini, Kristian, 2020. "US and euro area growth performances: Are they so different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 860-877.
    3. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Bouabdallah, Othman & Domingues Semeano, João & Dorrucci, Ettore & Freier, Maximilian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Modery, Wolfgang & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Valenta, Vilém & Zorell, , 2022. "The economic impact of Next Generation EU: a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 291, European Central Bank.
    4. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Freier, Maximilian & Muggenthaler, Philip, 2022. "Euro area fiscal policy response to the war in Ukraine and its macroeconomic impact," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
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