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Modelling drug market supply disruptions: Where do all the drugs not go?

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  • Caulkins, Jonathan P.
  • Hao, Haijing

Abstract

Drug producing regions often supply several geographically distinct drug consumption markets. Disruptions of opium cultivation in Afghanistan and cocaine production in Colombia show that consumption reductions can be much smaller in some final markets than are reductions in cultivation. This paper derives a model for predicting how production deficits will be "allocated" across downstream markets in the form of reduced use. Plausible parameterization suggests that for cocaine, markets outside the US may serve as a sort of "shock absorber", partially shielding US markets from sharp fluctuations in consumption. One implication is that multi-lateral efforts may be appropriate for source country control.

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  • Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Hao, Haijing, 2008. "Modelling drug market supply disruptions: Where do all the drugs not go?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 251-270.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:2:p:251-270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeff Desimone, 2006. "The Relationship Between Illegal Drug Prices At The Retail User And Seller Levels," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(1), pages 64-73, January.
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    1. Greenfield, Victoria A. & Bond, Craig A. & Crane, Keith, 2017. "A household model of opium-poppy cultivation in Afghanistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 741-761.
    2. Daniel Mejía & Pascual Restrepo, 2008. "The War on Illegal Drug Production and Trafficking: An Economic Evaluation of Plan Colombia," Documentos CEDE 5123, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Daniel Mejía & Pascual Restrepo, 2008. "The War on Illegal Drug Production and Trafficking: An Economic Evaluation of Plan Colombia," Documentos CEDE 005123, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    4. Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Baker, David, 2010. "Cobweb dynamics and price dispersion in illicit drug markets," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 220-230, December.

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