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Geopolitical uncertainty and shipping stock returns: An event study of the Israel-Hamas conflict

Author

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  • Marobhe, Mutaju Isaack
  • Kansheba, Jonathan Mukiza
  • Munim, Ziaul Haque

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict on maritime sector stocks using an event study approach, highlighting the sector's vulnerability during crises. Analyzing 32 companies across container, tanker, and dry bulk sub-sectors, we employ the Fama and French three-factor model to assess how maritime stocks respond to conflict-related news. Our findings reveal predominantly adverse stock reactions, particularly in the container and tanker segments, with the dry bulk sub-sector less affected. Notably, container shipping stocks showed significant declines following missile attacks on cargo vessels. Conversely, the market response to positive news, such as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, was muted, suggesting that good news impacts trading behaviour less than bad news. This study underscores the importance of monitoring news during major crises for theoretical and practical implications in the maritime industry, as it significantly influences stock performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Marobhe, Mutaju Isaack & Kansheba, Jonathan Mukiza & Munim, Ziaul Haque, 2025. "Geopolitical uncertainty and shipping stock returns: An event study of the Israel-Hamas conflict," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:123:y:2025:i:c:s0966692325000134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104122
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