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Railway expansions and human capital growth: A 20-year causal analysis in Tokyo

Author

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  • Kumagai, Junya
  • Yoo, Sunbin
  • Managi, Shunsuke

Abstract

Our study uncovers the causal link between railway expansions in Tokyo and a significant increase in the number of university graduates and high-skilled workers, with the effects being notably more pronounced in areas initially having lower proportions of those groups. We examine the mechanisms behind this phenomenon by (1) demonstrating how railway expansions attract university graduates and high-skilled workers by reducing commute costs, (2) improve access to universities, and (3) boost railway ridership. Our analysis employs both a difference-in-differences framework and a market access approach to separately evaluate the gentrification near new stations and the dispersion of human capital driven by enhanced network connectivity. The results reveal that university graduate rates and skilled worker rates rise by an average of 2.5 % and 1.4 %, respectively, due to improved connectivity. These findings underscore the value of railway expansion in fostering human capital development and provide critical insights for urban planners, policymakers, and transportation authorities, emphasizing the need to align transportation development with strategies for equitable urban growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumagai, Junya & Yoo, Sunbin & Managi, Shunsuke, 2025. "Railway expansions and human capital growth: A 20-year causal analysis in Tokyo," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:123:y:2025:i:c:s0966692324002850
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104076
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Human capital; Transportation density; Urban development; Transportation infrastructure; Railway; Education;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation

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