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Neighborhood change and transit ridership: Evidence from Los Angeles and Orange Counties

Author

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  • Manville, Michael
  • King, Hannah
  • Matute, Juan
  • Lau, Theodore

Abstract

Using data from Southern California, we examine the idea that rising housing prices in transit-rich neighborhoods contributed to pre-COVID declines in transit use. We merge ridership data from the Los Angeles region’s two largest transit providers with tract-level Census data on housing costs and other socioeconomic attributes. We show descriptively that a small share of Census tracts account for a disproportionate share of both total transit ridership and total ridership losses, and that along multiple dimensions these neighborhoods changed in ways consistent with gentrification. We then estimate regressions showing a statistically and economically significant association between rising rent and less tract-level ridership between two periods, 2008 to 2012 and 2013 to 2017. Specifically, a one-standard deviation increase in median rent is associated with 22 percent fewer neighborhood transit boardings.

Suggested Citation

  • Manville, Michael & King, Hannah & Matute, Juan & Lau, Theodore, 2024. "Neighborhood change and transit ridership: Evidence from Los Angeles and Orange Counties," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:121:y:2024:i:c:s0966692324002576
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104048
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