Futures literature and futures forecasting--A critical review

This paper presents a personal view of futures forecasting. Beginning with an overall view of the literature in the field with particular attention to the more significant contributions, methodology is then considered. Various general techniques of very long term forecasting are reviewed, followed by consideration of the particular fields of economic, social, technological, energy and politics. The social factor is seen to be all-pervading. A synthesis of futures forecasts is then attempted with particular reference to the British case. Finally, the significance of such forecasting approaches for the OR scientist is considered.