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Step-through simulation

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  • Ulvila, Jacob W
  • Brown, Rex V

Abstract

This report describes the initial development of the Step-Through variant of Monte Carlo simulation, a new procedure for implementing decision analysis or for training decision makers. Like regular Monte Carlo simulation, it involves sampling possible aftermaths of an initial action, and generating a distribution of outcome values for it. However, the detailed structure and/or assessments of the decision model are elicited as called for in the execution of each trial. It, therefore, permits substantial economy of elicitation if there are few trials. The Step-Through procedure also offers economy of elicitation and calculation over a traditional extensive tree decision-analytic model without requiring simplifications or aggregations in the model's conceptualization. In addition to describing this procedure, this paper presents the results of a preliminary test and evaluation of its viability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulvila, Jacob W & Brown, Rex V, 1978. "Step-through simulation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 25-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:6:y:1978:i:1:p:25-31
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    Cited by:

    1. Rex V. Brown, 2009. "Working with Policy Makers on Their Choices: A Decision Analyst Reminisces," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 14-24, March.

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