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Subjective probability in forecasting

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  • Jones, HG

Abstract

Practical examples of the use of subjective probability in forecasting are rare in the literature, yet in long term forecasting there is a large subjective element in choosing between alternatives. The paper indicates the background to the preparation of such a forecast in the whisky industry and discusses the benefits to be derived from a quantitative assessment with due emphasis on the recognition of the subjective nature of the quantification.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, HG, 1975. "Subjective probability in forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 321-327, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:3:y:1975:i:3:p:321-327
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