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Judgemental modelling as an aid to scenario planning and analysis

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  • Islei, Gerd
  • Lockett, Geoff
  • Naudé, Peter

Abstract

The paper presents the results of an application of judgemental modelling to the development and analysis of scenarios in the pharmaceutical industry. It describes how the models were constructed and evaluated by a group of executives responsible for the scenario generation, and uses perceptual mapping techniques to represent the differing perspectives. The paper considers the effectiveness of different approaches to support group decision making and how judgemental modelling aided the analysis of the outcomes. The initial results suggest that the combination of the structured decision approach and the visual representational technique is a powerful managerial tool in such situations. Proposals for its future development and suggestions for further research are explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Islei, Gerd & Lockett, Geoff & Naudé, Peter, 1999. "Judgemental modelling as an aid to scenario planning and analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 61-73, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:27:y:1999:i:1:p:61-73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Islei, Gred & Lockett, Geoff, 1991. "Group decision making: Suppositions and practice," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 67-81.
    2. Korhonen, Pekka & Moskowitz, Herbert & Wallenius, Jyrki, 1992. "Multiple criteria decision support - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 361-375, December.
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    4. Gerardine DeSanctis & R. Brent Gallupe, 1987. "A Foundation for the Study of Group Decision Support Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(5), pages 589-609, May.
    5. Kersten, Gregory E. & Mallory, Geoffrey R., 1990. "Supporting problem representations in decisions with strategic interactions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 200-215, May.
    6. Islei, G. & Lockett, A. G., 1988. "Judgemental modelling based on geometric least square," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 27-35, July.
    7. J. F. Nunamaker & Lynda M. Applegate & Benn R. Konsynski, 1988. "Computer-Aided Deliberation: Model Management and Group Decision Support," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 826-848, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 1-14.
    2. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2009. "Using expected values to simplify decision making under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 312-330, April.
    3. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.

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