Technology, productivity and economic analysis

A commonly held view is that innovation, deriving directly from expenditure on research and development, brings increased productivity, lower costs, increased profitability and growth, and that these relationships form a economically virtuous circle. However, this view is not supported either by the research results reported here or by other empirical findings. A richer and deeper framework of analysis than this "mythology" provides is required for management decision making in innovation and in this and the subsequent paper the author outlines the necessary features of such a framework. A model of a "network of productivity relationships" with six components is described which traces the effects of innovation, at any point in the network, on input productivities. The model points up the futility of single input measures of innovatory effects. This network is then combined with cost factors to show the effect on categories of unit costs and on total unit cost. Finally, profitability is related to the physical and cost factors to provide managerial control ratios which offer the relevent criteria by which innovation many be appraised. The history of innovation in the U.S. Basic Steel Industry is examined in the light of the model described above and hypotheses are proposed to identify possible productivity and cost effects of innovation with a view ot improving general predictive capability of the results of any given type of innovation.