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Robust decisions in power system investments

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  • Kavrakoglu, Ibrahim

Abstract

The Turkish electrical system has been studied, particularly for the near term investment programme. The objective of the study was to determine the most likely investment alternatives for the next ten-year period, from a cost effectiveness point of view. A dynamic linear programming model was used in representing the national energy system, with special emphasis on the electricity sector. Hydro, coal, nuclear and oil-fired power plants as well as their interconnection investments were modelled. A 27-year planning horizon was defined. The scenario approach was utilized in establishing the effects of different factors, such as foreign currency requirements of projects, nuclear plant costs and nuclear fuel costs, demand growth rates for electricity as well as other fuels, availability of foreign currency and skilled manpower, and the development rates of coal mines, coal power plants and nuclear power plants. After analyzing the results of 24 different scenarios, robust plans for developing the power system are suggested. Other investments that are subject to the realization of certain conditions are also indicated.

Suggested Citation

  • Kavrakoglu, Ibrahim, 1982. "Robust decisions in power system investments," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 471-481.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:10:y:1982:i:5:p:471-481
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