IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joepsy/v22y2001i4p493-522.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Strategies, heuristics, and the relevance of risk-aversion in a dynamic decision problem

Author

Listed:
  • Muller, Wieland

Abstract

In this paper I consider a complex decision problem where subjects have to cope with a time horizon of uncertain duration and must update their termination probabilities which depend on stochastic events during life. First I describe how economic theory suggests to solve the decision problem. But since real decision makers can hardly be expected to behave according to the theoretical solution in the problem at hand, I describe several heuristics or rules of thumb and investigate their theoretical performance. Then observed behavior and the way how people tackled the problem is described. In the second part of the paper I discuss how much of the data can be explained by assuming that experimental subjects are risk averse.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Muller, Wieland, 2001. "Strategies, heuristics, and the relevance of risk-aversion in a dynamic decision problem," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 493-522, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:22:y:2001:i:4:p:493-522
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-4870(01)00049-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hey, John D & Dardanoni, Valentino, 1987. "Optimal Consumption under Uncertainty: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(390), pages 105-116, Supplemen.
    2. Vital Anderhub & Werner Gäuth & Wieland Mäuller & Martin Strobel, 2000. "An Experimental Analysis of Intertemporal Allocation Behavior," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 3(2), pages 137-152, October.
    3. Anderhub, V., 1998. "Savings decisions when uncertainty is reduced -An experimental study-," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,73, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    4. Muller, Wieland, 2001. "Strategies, heuristics, and the relevance of risk-aversion in a dynamic decision problem," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 493-522, August.
    5. Enrica Carbone & John Hey, 2001. "A Test of the Principle of Optimality," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 263-281, May.
    6. Eric J. Johnson & John W. Payne, 1985. "Effort and Accuracy in Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 395-414, April.
    7. Hey, John D, 1983. "Whither Uncertainty?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(369a), pages 130-139, Supplemen.
    8. Stephen Johnson & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & William Samuelson, 1987. "Can People Compute? An Experimental Test of the Life Cycle Consumption Model," NBER Working Papers 2183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Pemberton, James, 1993. "Attainable Non-optimality or Unattainable Optimality: A New Approach to Stochastic Life Cycle Problems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 1-20, January.
    10. Huck, Steffen & Weizsacker, Georg, 1999. "Risk, complexity, and deviations from expected-value maximization: Results of a lottery choice experiment," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 699-715, December.
    11. Pemberton, James, 1993. "Attainable Non-optimality or Unattainable Optimality: A New Approach to Stochastic Life Cycle Problems: Erratum," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 992-993, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John D. Hey & Julia A. Knoll, 2018. "Strategies in dynamic decision making – An experimental investigation of the rationality of decision behaviour," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Experiments in Economics Decision Making and Markets, chapter 9, pages 223-233, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Muller, Wieland, 2001. "Strategies, heuristics, and the relevance of risk-aversion in a dynamic decision problem," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 493-522, August.
    3. Feltovich, Nick & Ejebu, Ourega-Zoé, 2014. "Do positional goods inhibit saving? Evidence from a life-cycle experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 440-454.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodepeter, Ralf & Winter, Joachim, 1999. "Rules of thumb in life-cycle savings models," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-81, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Forecasting demographic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1128-1135.
    3. Yamamori, Tetsuo & Iwata, Kazuyuki & Ogawa, Akira, 2018. "Does money illusion matter in intertemporal decision making?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 465-473.
    4. Feltovich, Nick & Ejebu, Ourega-Zoé, 2014. "Do positional goods inhibit saving? Evidence from a life-cycle experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 440-454.
    5. Binswanger, Johannes, 2011. "Dynamic decision making with feasibility goals: A procedural-rationality approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 219-228, May.
    6. Binswanger, Johannes, 2012. "Life cycle saving: Insights from the perspective of bounded rationality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 605-623.
    7. Hideaki Tamura & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2014. "A New Solution to the Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers 1422, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    8. Pemberton, James, 1997. "Modelling and measuring income uncertainty in life cycle models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-98, January.
    9. Binswanger, J., 2010. "Towards Understanding Life Cycle Savings of Boundedly Rational Agents : A Model with Feasibility Goals (Revision of DP 2008-14)," Other publications TiSEM 63db6161-5b89-4743-b3b1-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Jang, Insong, 2001. "Forward Looking Behavior And Empirical Household Consumption Function," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 7/2001, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    11. Tetsuo Yamamori & Kazuyuki Iwata & Akira Ogawa, 2020. "Effect of Longevity on Saving Behavior: An Experimental Study on the Simple Intertemporal Life-Cycle Problem," Working Papers e153, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    12. Harald Uhlig & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Rules of Thumb versus Dynamic Programming," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 148-174, March.
    13. John D. Hey & Julia A. Knoll, 2018. "Strategies in dynamic decision making – An experimental investigation of the rationality of decision behaviour," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Experiments in Economics Decision Making and Markets, chapter 9, pages 223-233, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Rae, David, 1996. "NBNZ-DEMONZ: A dynamic equilibrium model of New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 91-165, January.
    15. David Rae, 1997. "A forward-looking model of aggregate consumption in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 199-220.
    16. Binswanger, J., 2010. "Towards Understanding Life Cycle Savings of Boundedly Rational Agents : A Model with Feasibility Goals (Revision of DP 2008-14)," Discussion Paper 2010-138, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Binswanger, J., 2008. "Towards Understanding Life Cycle Saving Of Boundedly Rational Agents : A Model With Feasibility Goals - Replaced by CentER Discussion Paper 2010-138," Other publications TiSEM 96691d61-ad35-456d-baf5-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Binswanger, J., 2008. "Towards Understanding Life Cycle Saving Of Boundedly Rational Agents : A Model With Feasibility Goals - Replaced by CentER Discussion Paper 2010-138," Discussion Paper 2008-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    19. Ballinger, T.P. & Palumbo, M.G. & Wilcox, N.T., 1998. "Precautionary Saving in the Laboratory," Papers 98-04, Houston - Department of Economics.
    20. Vital Anderhuba & Dennis A. V. Dittrich & Werner Güth & Nadege Marchandd, "undated". "Interpersonal allocation behavior in a household saving experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-02, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:22:y:2001:i:4:p:493-522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.