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Strategies, heuristics, and the relevance of risk-aversion in a dynamic decision problem

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  • Muller, Wieland

Abstract

In this paper I consider a complex decision problem where subjects have to cope with a time horizon of uncertain duration and must update their termination probabilities which depend on stochastic events during life. First I describe how economic theory suggests to solve the decision problem. But since real decision makers can hardly be expected to behave according to the theoretical solution in the problem at hand, I describe several heuristics or rules of thumb and investigate their theoretical performance. Then observed behavior and the way how people tackled the problem is described. In the second part of the paper I discuss how much of the data can be explained by assuming that experimental subjects are risk averse.
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  • Muller, Wieland, 2001. "Strategies, heuristics, and the relevance of risk-aversion in a dynamic decision problem," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 493-522, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:22:y:2001:i:4:p:493-522
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    1. Hey, John D & Dardanoni, Valentino, 1987. "Optimal Consumption under Uncertainty: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(390), pages 105-116, Supplemen.
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    6. Vital Anderhub & Werner Güth & Wieland Müller & Martin Strobel, 2000. "An Experimental Analysis of Intertemporal Allocation Behavior," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 3(2), pages 137-152, October.
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    8. Anderhub, V., 1998. "Savings decisions when uncertainty is reduced -An experimental study-," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,73, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    9. Muller, Wieland, 2001. "Strategies, heuristics, and the relevance of risk-aversion in a dynamic decision problem," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 493-522, August.
    10. Eric J. Johnson & John W. Payne, 1985. "Effort and Accuracy in Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 395-414, April.
    11. Pemberton, James, 1993. "Attainable Non-optimality or Unattainable Optimality: A New Approach to Stochastic Life Cycle Problems: Erratum," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 992-993, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. John D. Hey & Julia A. Knoll, 2018. "Strategies in dynamic decision making – An experimental investigation of the rationality of decision behaviour," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Experiments in Economics Decision Making and Markets, chapter 9, pages 223-233, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Muller, Wieland, 2001. "Strategies, heuristics, and the relevance of risk-aversion in a dynamic decision problem," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 493-522, August.
    3. Feltovich, Nick & Ejebu, Ourega-Zoé, 2014. "Do positional goods inhibit saving? Evidence from a life-cycle experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 440-454.

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