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Commonalities and heterogeneity in the Iberian business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Afonso, António
  • Morão, Hugo

Abstract

This paper studies the characteristics of Spanish and Portuguese business cycles over around 150 years. We estimate a time-varying multi-country Bayesian Vector Autoregression, jointly modeling real and financial variables for Portugal and Spain to investigate convergence and synchronization. The primary evidence indicates a consistent common component linking the business cycles of the two nations. Fiscal policy harmonization and financial market integration have been successful, as seen in the converging trends of stock prices and budget deficits. However, this does not extend to credit and country spreads, where idiosyncratic dynamics continue to be significant and are unlikely to diminish in the near future, which can pose challenges in implementing further policies like the Euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Morão, Hugo, 2024. "Commonalities and heterogeneity in the Iberian business cycle," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:30:y:2024:i:c:s1703494924000240
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00375
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portugal; Spain; Heterogeneity; Business cycle; Euro area; Panel BVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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