How many people will live and die with serious illness in Ireland to 2040? Estimated needs and costs using microsimulation

As populations age, more people worldwide will live and die with serious illness like cancer, heart disease and dementia. Prior projections of serious illness prevalence and end-of-life care needs have typically used static population-level methods. We estimated future disease prevalence and healthcare costs by applying dynamic microsimulation models to high-quality individual-level panel data on older adults (aged 50 + ) in Ireland. We estimated that the number of people living and dying with serious illness will increase approximately 70 % over 20 years. Per-capita annual costs both at end of life and not at end of life increase substantially due to ageing populations and growing complexity. Total health system expenditures on care for people with serious illness are projected to double before accounting for rising cost of inputs in real terms. Decomposition of these estimates suggests that 39 % of additional costs are accounted for by rising absolute numbers of older people, 37 % by changing age distribution and growing life expectancy, and 23 % due to rising individual complexity including morbidity and functional limitations. Our results and methods will be of interest to other countries planning for the future population health needs, and formidable health system resources associated with these needs, in the coming years.