Changes in the morbidity prevalence and morbidity-free life expectancy of the elderly population in China from 2000 to 2010

This paper explores the changes in the prevalence of morbidity, morbidity-free life expectancy and its related factors in China from 2000 to 2010. The analysis uses health status data from three waves of the Sample Survey of the Aged Population in Urban/Rural China (SSAPUR). To explore the changes, three types of morbidity-free life expectancy (MFLE) are estimated using the Sullivan method. To identify the influencing factors of morbidity, we use regression models that consist of social and economic variables to identify these factors. Our results show that between 2000 and 2010, the prevalence of moderate morbidity based on activities of daily living (ADLs) declined across most age groups; however, the prevalence for instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and severe morbidity both increased, especially in the oldest old age group. Furthermore, the ratio of the MFLE to the total remaining life expectancy suggests the occurrence of a trend toward morbidity expansion. Our regression results suggest that age is the main factor in morbidity and impairment; however, education, health care, income and urbanisation play important roles in reducing the scores for IADLs and the prevalence of ADLs disability. Our findings imply that health care policy should assume a greater focus on healthy ageing, especially when people are expected to live longer. The findings also suggest that the government should prepare for the increasing demand for long-term care in the near future.