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A structural analysis of the effects of the Great Recession on retirement and working longer by members of two-earner households

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  • Gustman, Alan L.
  • Steinmeier, Thomas L.
  • Tabatabai, Nahid

Abstract

This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Study to estimate a structural model of household retirement and saving. It applies that model to analyze the effects of the Great Recession on the work and retirement of older couples who were both employed full-time at the beginning of the recession. We analyze the effects of job loss, changes in wealth and changes in expectations. The largest overall effects of the Great Recession are observed for 2009 and 2010. In 2009, an additional 2.5 percent of all 55 to 59 year old husbands were not working full-time as result of the Great Recession, amounting to a reduction of 3.2 percent in full-time work. In 2010, 2.8 percent of 55 to 59 year old husbands were not working full-time as a result of the Great Recession, amounting to a 3.8 percent reduction in full-time work. For wives the reductions in full-time work due to the Great Recession were 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent of those who initially held a job, or reductions of full-time work of 2.3 and 3.0 percent respectively. For those 60 to 64, the reductions were 1.2 percent of men and 0.9 percent of women. Having been laid off in the last three years reduces full-time work by 30 percent. There also are lingering effects of layoff on the probability of working longer. Having been laid off three or more years in the past reduces full-time employment in the current year by about 12 percent. This reflects the reduced work incentives for full-time work arising from lower earnings due to the loss of job tenure with a layoff as well as the additional earnings penalty from a layoff. The effect on own work of a spouse having been laid off is much smaller. The reason is that, as found in the estimation of our structural model, having one spouse not working increases the value of leisure for the other. In contrast, when one member of the household loses their job, the value of consumption increases relative to leisure. For recent layoffs, these effects are roughly offsetting. Al
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Suggested Citation

  • Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L. & Tabatabai, Nahid, 2018. "A structural analysis of the effects of the Great Recession on retirement and working longer by members of two-earner households," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 175-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:12:y:2018:i:c:p:175-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.05.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2014. "Integrating Retirement Models: Understanding Household Retirement Decisions," Research in Labor Economics, in: Factors Affecting Worker Well-being: The Impact of Change in the Labor Market, volume 40, pages 79-112, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2010. "What the Stock Market Decline Means for the Financial Security and Retirement Choices of the Near-Retirement Population," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 161-182, Winter.
    3. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L. & Tabatabai, Nahid, 2018. "A structural analysis of the effects of the Great Recession on retirement and working longer by members of two-earner households," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 175-182.
    4. Blundell, R. & French, E. & Tetlow, G., 2016. "Retirement Incentives and Labor Supply," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 457-566, Elsevier.
    5. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2014. "The Great Recession, Decline and Rebound in Household Wealth for the Near Retirement Population," NBER Working Papers 20584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Guodong & Lee, Minjoon & Nam, Tong-yob, 2020. "Forced retirement risk and portfolio choice," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 293-315.
    2. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L. & Tabatabai, Nahid, 2018. "A structural analysis of the effects of the Great Recession on retirement and working longer by members of two-earner households," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 175-182.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics

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