IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v36y2024ics2405851324000606.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Food-fuel nexus beyond mean-variance: New evidence from a quantile approach

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Linjie
  • Etienne, Xiaoli
  • Li, Jian

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between crude oil, ethanol, and corn markets across various quantiles of return distributions, as well as at higher statistical moments. Using a quantile vector autoregression model and data from 2007 to 2022, we find that the cross-market linkages are quantile dependent, with the strongest connections observed in the tails of the distribution. A shock to the oil market significantly impacts ethanol and corn returns under extreme bearish and bullish conditions. Positive shocks to the corn market reduce ethanol returns when the ethanol market is highly bullish, but this effect becomes positive in the left tail of the distribution. We also identify significant co-movement in higher statistical moments between these markets. Extreme excess kurtosis in the food-fuel nexus is more likely to occur with high financial market uncertainty, a bullish stock market, contracting industrial production, and a strong US dollar. In addition to these variables, credit spreads, futures market liquidity, futures term structure, and hedging pressure also influence kurtosis in individual markets within the nexus.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Linjie & Etienne, Xiaoli & Li, Jian, 2024. "Food-fuel nexus beyond mean-variance: New evidence from a quantile approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:36:y:2024:i:c:s2405851324000606
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851324000606
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100441?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil market; Corn market; Biofuels; Price distribution; Time-varying moments; Quantile vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:36:y:2024:i:c:s2405851324000606. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.