IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v26y2022ics2405851321000507.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Endogeneity of commodity price in freight cost models

Author

Listed:
  • Lim, Kian Guan

Abstract

In this paper, we answer a novel question on how the value of goods carried can affect the freight cost. We focus on the issue based on a more specialized freight market involving transport of seaborne iron ore from mining ports to Qingdao in China during the period 2014 to 2019. We construct simultaneous systems of demand–supply equations on both the iron ore market and the freight market. In the models, we explain how endogeneity of iron ore as a regressor can arise due to the nexus between the two markets, and that the freight demand is largely a derived demand from iron ore demand by PRC firms importing the iron ore. Employing instrumental variable two-stage least squares regression, it is shown that iron ore price negatively affects, ceteris paribus, the freight rate of bulk carriers ferrying the iron ore. Industrial growth, bunker fuel oil, Baltic Dry Index, and transport distance have positive effects on the freight rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Kian Guan, 2022. "Endogeneity of commodity price in freight cost models," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:26:y:2022:i:c:s2405851321000507
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100217
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851321000507
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100217?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Celestino Suarez-Burguet, 2005. "Transport costs and trade: Empirical evidence for Latin American imports from the European union," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 353-371.
    2. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
    4. Gordon Wilmsmeier & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2009. "Determinants of maritime transport costs -- a panel data analysis for Latin American trade," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 105-121, October.
    5. Wilmsmeier, Gordon & Hoffmann, Jan & Sanchez, Ricardo J., 2006. "The Impact of Port Characteristics on International Maritime Transport Costs," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 117-140, January.
    6. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Bahloul, Walid & Balcilar, Mehmet & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "The role of economic and financial uncertainties in predicting commodity futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 52-71.
    11. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    12. Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2016. "Commodity markets volatility transmission: Roles of risk perceptions and uncertainty in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 35-45.
    13. Amir Alizadeh & Wayne Talley, 2011. "Microeconomic determinants of dry bulk shipping freight rates and contract times," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 561-579, May.
    14. Wilmsmeier, Gordon & Sanchez, Ricardo J., 2009. "The relevance of international transport costs on food prices: Endogenous and exogenous effects," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 56-66.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Xiaoyang & Sun, Jialong & Fu, Haoran & Ge, Fuyi & Wu, Junfeng & Lev, Benjamin, 2024. "Resilience analysis of the integrated China-Europe freight transportation network under heterogeneous demands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karikallio, Hanna, 2015. "Cross-commodity Price Transmission and Integration of the EU Livestock Market of Pork and Beef: Panel Time-series Approach," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211832, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Pot, Felix Johan & Koster, Sierdjan, 2022. "Small airports: Runways to regional economic growth?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Lee Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Does Insurance Matter for Growth: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, June.
    4. Win Chou & Dominica Lee, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Analysis of Audit Pricing Model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 423-439, June.
    5. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 839-858, November.
    6. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo.
    7. Russell Davidson & Victoria Zinde‐Walsh, 2017. "Advances in specification testing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1595-1631, December.
    8. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    9. David Canning & Peter Pedroni, 2008. "Infrastructure, Long‐Run Economic Growth And Causality Tests For Cointegrated Panels," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 504-527, September.
    10. Kugler, Maurice, 2006. "Spillovers from foreign direct investment: Within or between industries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 444-477, August.
    11. Shahida Suleman & Farrukh Nawaz & Mariam Sohail & Umar Kayani & Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker & Calvin Cheong Wing Hoh, 2024. "An Empirical Analysis of Trade Market Dynamics on CO2 Emissions: A Study of GCC Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 114-126, November.
    12. Md Shahiduzzaman & Allan Layton & Khorshed Alam, 2015. "On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 281-304, November.
    13. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    14. Narayan, Seema & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2021. "Can home-biased investors diversify interregionally in the long run?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 167-181.
    15. Skare, Marinko & Ozturk, Ilhan & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata & Stjepanovic, Sasa, 2024. "Energy as the new frontier: Dynamic panel data analysis revealing energy's transformative role in economic growth and technological progress," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Abdulnasser, Hatemi-J, 2011. "Hidden panel cointegration," MPRA Paper 31604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Chou, Win Lin & Gau, Joshua J.S. & Liang, Kuo-Yuan, 2007. "Industrial business cycle linkages between Taiwan and the United States: Evidence from the IT industry," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-447, June.
    18. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christoph Hanck, 2009. "Cointegration tests of PPP: do they also exhibit erratic behaviour?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 9-15.
    19. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Does global liquidity drive commodity prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 224-234.
    20. Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara, 2010. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 591-603, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Freight rate; Iron ore price; Endogeneity; Panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:26:y:2022:i:c:s2405851321000507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.