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Predicting earnings in a poor information environment

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  • Wang, Weimin
  • (Frank) Wang, Xu

Abstract

Financial intermediaries, such as analysts, play an important role in providing information to investors. However, a large segment of the market (about 39% of CRSP firms between 1992 and 2009) is not served by financial analysts, leaving investors in a poor information environment. In this paper, we examine whether other publicly available information signals, such as insider trades, institutional holdings, and firms’ stock repurchases, can be used to predict information about earnings for these firms. We find that CFOs’ trading decisions are associated with new information contained in the annual earnings reports for firms with no or scant analyst coverage. In contrast, for firms with multiple analyst coverage, insider trading decisions are not predictive of new information in earnings reports. Our results suggest that some public information signals, such as insider trades, can be used to alleviate the poor information environment faced by investors. However, the market may not have fully priced the information contained in these signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Weimin & (Frank) Wang, Xu, 2014. "Predicting earnings in a poor information environment," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 46-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocaae:v:10:y:2014:i:1:p:46-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcae.2014.01.002
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    1. Jonnergård, Karin & von Koch, Christopher & Nilsson, Ola, 2020. "Information environment – An exploration and clarification of the concept based on prior literature," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han & Kuntluru, Sudershan & Nofsinger, John, 2020. "Share buybacks in India," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Duong, Lien & Evans, John, 2016. "Gender differences in compensation and earnings management: Evidence from Australian CFOs," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 17-35.

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