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Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy

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  • Hwang, Youngjin

Abstract

This study explores the information content of yield curve dynamics in the context of monetary policy using time-varying macro VARs augmented with three yield curve factors (i.e., level, slope, and curvature). By utilizing contemporaneous co-movements between short-term interest rates and these factors, we identify multiple shocks related to monetary policy: two news shocks (supply and demand), a forward guidance shock, and an inflation-targeting shock. We find distinct differences in the dynamic responses of output and prices across shocks as well as over time. We highlight the role of each yield curve factor, in particular the curvature factor in a forward guidance shock, in generating the results across shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:83:y:2025:i:c:s0164070424000727
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103658
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    Keywords

    News shocks; Monetary policy; Forward guidance; Yield curve; Level; Slope; Curvature; Time-varying VARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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