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Optimal Loan Loss Provisions and Welfare

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  • Tayler, William J.
  • Zilberman, Roy

Abstract

We study the welfare implications of optimal loan loss provisions in a New Keynesian model featuring endogenous default risk and inflationary credit spreads. A unique link between provisions, credit spreads and inflation can be employed to enhance macroeconomic stability. Optimal provisions are most effective when dealing with cost-push financial shocks inherent in volatile spreads and the zero bound problem of monetary policy. Relaxing provisioning requirements following a recessionary financial disturbance consistently achieves the first-best outcome while nullifying the value of monetary policy under commitment. In contrast, deflationary demand shocks warrant an optimal rise in provisions, which inflate prices yet mildly contract output.

Suggested Citation

  • Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2021. "Optimal Loan Loss Provisions and Welfare," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:69:y:2021:i:c:s0164070421000434
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103338
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    Cited by:

    1. Degryse, Hans & Huylebroek, Cédric, 2023. "Fiscal support and banks’ loan loss provisions during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal provisioning policies; prudential policies; credit cost channel; zero lower bound; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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