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The transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Yano, Ritsu
  • Nakazono, Yoshiyuki
  • Tango, Kento

Abstract

Following Miranda-Agrippino and Ricco (2021), we identify a monetary policy shock in Japan. We construct this shock to be orthogonal to the Bank of Japan’s macroeconomic forecasts, as well as a central bank’s information shock (Nakamura and Steinsson, 2018). Our findings indicate that a surprise policy tightening is contractionary, leading to a deterioration in output and decline in prices. There are no lagged effects of monetary policy on inflation. In response to a tightening shock, prices fall immediately. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a positive central bank information shock increases both output and prices. An unexpected positive outlook from the Bank of Japan raises stock prices and depreciates the Japanese yen. This evidence suggests that information effects play a crucial role in the Japanese economy, even under the effective lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Yano, Ritsu & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Tango, Kento, 2025. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:75:y:2025:i:c:s0889158324000455
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101349
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    Cited by:

    1. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Naoto Soma, "undated". "The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1238, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectation; Inflation; Monetary policy; Monetary policy shock; Price puzzle; Private information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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