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Yen-synchronization of floating East Asian currencies: A regime-switching regression model and micro-structural analysis

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  • Kim, Bong-Han
  • Min, Hong-Ghi
  • McDonald, Judy
  • Hwang, Young-Soon

Abstract

Using a regime-switching regression model, we find evidence of synchronization between the Swiss-franc exchange rates of floating East Asian currencies and the Swiss-franc–Japanese-yen exchange rate over the period 1999–2006. The volatility of Swiss-franc–East-Asian currencies’ exchange rates is higher during the synchronization period than during the de-synchronization period. Contrary to traditional arguments concerning the yen-bloc, we find that the Export-Similarity Index and Foreign Portfolio Investment between Japan and East Asian countries are the two main determinants of yen-synchronization in the region. Finally, micro-structural analysis shows that the weeks of synchronization is greater when the yen is strong for Korea and Taiwan, but there are no asymmetric responses for Thailand, Indonesia, or the Philippines.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & McDonald, Judy & Hwang, Young-Soon, 2012. "Yen-synchronization of floating East Asian currencies: A regime-switching regression model and micro-structural analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 221-232.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:26:y:2012:i:2:p:221-232
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2012.01.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin KEDDAD & SATO Kiyotaka, 2019. "Pegging or Floating? A Regime-Switching Perspective of Asian Exchange Rate Practices," Discussion papers 19073, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Hyeongwoo Kim & Young-Kyu Moh, 2012. "The Yen Real Exchange Rate May Not be Stationary After All: New Evidence from Non-linear Unit-Root Tests," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 18(4), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    5. Wong, KKS & Chin, Lee & Azali, M, 2015. "Yen Synchronization among ASEAN-5, Korea and Japan: Evidence from The Multivariate GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 96863, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export similarity; Foreign Portfolio Investment; FDI; Yen-synchronization; Markov-switching regression model; Yen bloc;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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