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Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Billio, M.
  • Busetto, F.
  • Dufour, A.
  • Varotto, S.

Abstract

This paper investigates the influence of forward-looking government bond supply information on changes in the term structure of interest rates. While traditional arbitrage-free models suggest that bond supply should not impact bond yields, models accounting for preferred-habitat investors and imperfect asset substitutability raise this possibility. By analysing debt supply expectations derived from Germany's Treasury press releases, we find that news about expected bond supply affects bond yields, supporting the notion that supply expectations influence current interest rates. Our study also extends macro-finance models, highlighting the significant role of supply expectations in term structure dynamics. Additionally, we provide insights into the puzzle of German government bond yields falling below the ECB deposit rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Billio, M. & Busetto, F. & Dufour, A. & Varotto, S., 2025. "Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:150:y:2025:i:c:s0261560624002043
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103217
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected supply; Quantitative easing; Term structure; Interest rates; Government bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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