Prices and returns: Role of inflation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103149
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023.
"Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolò & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 31075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y, 1991.
"A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
- John Y. Campbell, 1990. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004.
"Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
- John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 10263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vuolteenaho, Tuomo & Campbell, John, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," Scholarly Articles 3196090, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
- Mikhail Chernov & Lars A. Lochstoer & Dongho Song, 2021.
"The Real Channel for Nominal Bond-Stock Puzzles,"
NBER Working Papers
29085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chernov, Mikhail & Lochstoer, Lars & Song, Dongho, 2021. "The real channel for nominal bond-stock puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 16381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Henrik Hasseltoft & Dominic Burkhardt, 2012. "Understanding Asset Correlations," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-38, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012.
"Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1255-1265.
- Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen & Carsten Tanggaard, 2010. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," CREATES Research Papers 2010-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Clifford S. Asness, 2000. "Stocks versus Bonds: Explaining the Equity Risk Premium," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 96-113, March.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven A. Sharpe, 2002.
"Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation: The Implications Of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 632-648, November.
- Steven A. Sharpe, 2001. "Reexamining stock valuation and inflation: the implications of analysts' earnings forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christian Gillitzer & Martin McCarthy, 2019. "Does global inflation help forecast inflation in industrialized countries?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 850-857, August.
- John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2020.
"Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3148-3185.
- John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Aug 2018.
- John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010.
"Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model","
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 278-294, April.
- Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the “Fed Model”," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
- Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the Stock Market:Understanding the "Fed Model"," NBER Working Papers 15024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2014.
"Dividend Predictability Around the World,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1255-1277, December.
- Jesper Rangvid & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "Dividend predictability around the world," CREATES Research Papers 2010-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999.
"Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Campbell, John & Cochrane, John H., 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chao Wei, 2010.
"Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 325-345, March.
- Chao Wei, 2010. "Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 325-345, March.
- Chao Wei, 2007. "Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion," 2007 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ritter, Jay R. & Warr, Richard S., 2002. "The Decline of Inflation and the Bull Market of 1982–1999," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 29-61, March.
- Lee, Bong Soo, 2010. "Stock returns and inflation revisited: An evaluation of the inflation illusion hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1257-1273, June.
- Neely, Christopher J. & Rapach, David E., 2011. "International comovements in inflation rates and country characteristics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1471-1490.
- Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2018. "Disappearing money illusion," CREATES Research Papers 2018-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
- Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
- Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, August.
- Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013.
"A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
- Ivan Shaliastovich & Ravi Bansal, 2012. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 778, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2012. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 18357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Gomez-Cram & Amir Yaron, 2021. "How Important Are Inflation Expectations for the Nominal Yield Curve? [Pricing the term structure with linear regressions]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 985-1045.
- John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
- Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
- Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005.
"Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 639-668.
- Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 11018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
- Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Dividend Yields, Dividend Growth, and Return Predictability in the Cross Section of Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1-2), pages 33-60, April.
- Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2010.
"The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605, September.
- Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2009. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2009-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2013. "What Ties Return Volatilities to Price Valuations and Fundamentals?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(4), pages 682-746.
- Kung, Howard, 2015. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 42-57.
- Chao Wei & Fred Joutz, 2011. "Inflation illusion or no illusion: what did pre- and post-war data say?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1599-1603.
- Long Chen & Zhi Da & Xinlei Zhao, 2013. "What Drives Stock Price Movements?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 841-876.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song & Amir Yaron, 2018.
"Identifying Long‐Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed‐Frequency Approach,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 617-654, March.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song & Amir Yaron, 2013. "Identifying long-run risks: a bayesian mixed-frequency approach," Working Papers 13-39, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song & Amir Yaron, 2014. "Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach," NBER Working Papers 20303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dongho Song & Amir Yaron & Frank Schorfheide, 2013. "Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach," 2013 Meeting Papers 580, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Long Chen & Zhi Da & Richard Priestley, 2012. "Dividend Smoothing and Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1834-1853, October.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
- Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
- Golez, Benjamin & Koudijs, Peter, 2018. "Four centuries of return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 248-263.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
- Krishnamurthy, Srinivasan & Pelletier, Denis & Warr, Richard S., 2018. "Inflation and equity mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 52-69.
- Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
- Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2018. "Decomposing the predictive power of local and global financial valuation ratios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 137-149.
- Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2016. "The predictive power of dividend yields for future infl?ation: Money illusion or rational causes?," CREATES Research Papers 2016-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Maio, Paulo & Zeng, Ming, 2023. "On the driving forces of real exchange rates: Is the Japanese Yen different?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
- Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
- Fausch, Jürg & Sigonius, Markus, 2018. "The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 46-63.
- Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2018. "Disappearing money illusion," CREATES Research Papers 2018-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010.
"Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model","
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 278-294, April.
- Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the “Fed Model”," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
- Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the Stock Market:Understanding the "Fed Model"," NBER Working Papers 15024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
- Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
- Ermolov, Andrey, 2022. "Time-varying risk of nominal bonds: How important are macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 1-28.
- Lan, Chunhua & Doan, Bao, 2022. "Stock price movements: Evidence from global equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 123-143.
- Gozluklu, Arie & Morin, Annaïg, 2019. "Stock vs. Bond yields and demographic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
- Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
- Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008.
"Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
- Markus K Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," FMG Discussion Papers dp579, Financial Markets Group.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Julliard, Christian, 2006. "Money illusion and housing frenzies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4806, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Brunnermeier, Markus & Julliard, Christian, 2007. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," CEPR Discussion Papers 6183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," NBER Working Papers 12810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mohsen Jafarian & Fauzias Mat Nor & Izani Ibrahim, 2018. "The Relative Importance of Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News at Driving Stock Price Change," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 56-72.
More about this item
Keywords
Inflation predictability; International equity markets; Long-horizon regressions; Financial ratios; Hypothesis tests;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:147:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624001360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.