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Production structure, tradability and fiscal spending multipliers

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  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús
  • Glocker, Christian

Abstract

We assess the role that nontradable goods play as a determinant of fiscal spending multipliers, making use of a two-sector model. While fiscal multipliers increase with the share of nontradable goods, an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between multiplier size and the import share. Employing an interacted panel VAR model for EU countries, we estimate the effect of the share of nontradable goods on fiscal spending multipliers. Our empirical results provide strong evidence for the predictions of the theoretical model. They imply that the drag of fiscal consolidations is on average smaller in countries with a low share of nontradable goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Glocker, Christian, 2023. "Production structure, tradability and fiscal spending multipliers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:138:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623001225
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102921
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dotsey, Michael & Duarte, Margarida, 2008. "Nontraded goods, market segmentation, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1129-1142, September.
    2. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    4. S. Micossi & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 1994. "Real Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nontradable Goods," IMF Working Papers 1994/019, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal spending multiplier; Nontradable goods; Openness; DSGE model; Interacted panel VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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