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Sovereign risk evaluation for European Union countries

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  • Agiakloglou, Christos
  • Deligiannakis, Emmanouil

Abstract

This study investigates the short run and the long run relationship between government bond yields and their associated credit default swaps (CDS), using co-integration and Granger causality techniques, for eight major European Union countries, over three different periods, considering the global financial and the resultant European debt crises. Moreover, this study tries to explore the interactions between changes in sovereign debt ratings and the corresponding credit premiums as an effort to examine the role of top credit rating agencies in defining CDS prices and as an attempt to illuminate the importance of the announcement date based on an event study.

Suggested Citation

  • Agiakloglou, Christos & Deligiannakis, Emmanouil, 2020. "Sovereign risk evaluation for European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:103:y:2020:i:c:s0261560619306175
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102117
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Gex, Mathieu & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 481-497.
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    9. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
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    17. Helmut Reisen & Julia Von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    18. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    19. Haibin Zhu, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 211-235, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah, 2023. "To what extent do sovereign rating actions affect global equity market sectors?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 240-261.
    2. Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo, 2021. "The asymmetric impact of the pandemic crisis on interest rates on public debt in the Eurozone," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 521-542.
    3. Hippolyte Balima & Alexandru Minea & Cezara Vinturis, 2023. "Do sovereign credit rating events affect the foreign exchange market? Evidence from a treatment effect analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 90(1), pages 156-181, July.
    4. Nicoletta Layher & Eyden Samunderu, 2020. "The Impact of the Introduction of Uniform European Collective Action Clauses on European Government Bonds as a Regulatory Result of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-32, December.
    5. Nicoló Andrea Caserini & Paolo Pagnottoni, 2022. "Effective transfer entropy to measure information flows in credit markets," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(4), pages 729-757, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign bond yield; Credit default swap; Credit rating; European debt crisis; Granger causality; Co-integration; Event study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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