IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhecon/v94y2024ics0167629624000055.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the effects of tobacco-21 on youth tobacco use and sales

Author

Listed:
  • Abouk, Rahi
  • De, Prabal K.
  • Pesko, Michael F.

Abstract

We examine the effect of raising the minimum legal sale age of tobacco to 21 (i.e., “T21”). We estimate difference-in-differences models using the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey data and Nielsen Retail Scanner data from 2012 to 2019. Outcomes include cigarette and e-cigarette use and sales. We find sizable reductions in e-cigarette and cigarette use for 12th graders. T21 also reduced cigarette sales by 12.4 % and e-cigarette sales by 69.3 % in counties with the highest percent quartile of individuals under 21 years of age. In terms of mechanisms, we find that T21 increases ID checking and perceived risks of using both products.

Suggested Citation

  • Abouk, Rahi & De, Prabal K. & Pesko, Michael F., 2024. "Estimating the effects of tobacco-21 on youth tobacco use and sales," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s0167629624000055
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102860
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167629624000055
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102860?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin Callison & Robert Kaestner, 2014. "Do Higher Tobacco Taxes Reduce Adult Smoking? New Evidence Of The Effect Of Recent Cigarette Tax Increases On Adult Smoking," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 155-172, January.
    2. DiNardo, John & Lemieux, Thomas, 2001. "Alcohol, marijuana, and American youth: the unintended consequences of government regulation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 991-1010, November.
    3. Meier, Armando N. & Odermatt, Reto & Stutzer, Alois, 2021. "Tobacco sales prohibition and teen smoking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 998-1014.
    4. Pesko, Michael F. & Currie, Janet M., 2019. "E-cigarette minimum legal sale age laws and traditional cigarette use among rural pregnant teenagers," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 71-90.
    5. Benjamin Hansen & Joseph J. Sabia & Daniel I. Rees, 2017. "Have Cigarette Taxes Lost Their Bite? New Estimates of the Relationship between Cigarette Taxes and Youth Smoking," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 60-75, Winter.
    6. Andrew Goodman-Bacon, 2018. "Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing," NBER Working Papers 25018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michael Darden & Donna B. Gilleskie & Koleman Strumpf, 2018. "Smoking And Mortality: New Evidence From A Long Panel," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1571-1619, August.
    8. Abouk, Rahi & Courtemanche, Charles & Dave, Dhaval & Feng, Bo & Friedman, Abigail S. & Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Pesko, Michael F. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Safford, Samuel, 2023. "Intended and unintended effects of e-cigarette taxes on youth tobacco use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Frank J. Chaloupka & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Matthew C. Farrelly & Lloyd D. Johnston & Patrick M. O'Malley, 1999. "Do Higher Cigarette Prices Encourage Youth to Use Marijuana?," NBER Working Papers 6939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Don & Mathios, Alan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and the transition from youth to adult smoking: Smoking initiation, cessation, and participation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 904-917, July.
    11. Abouk, Rahi & Adams, Scott, 2017. "Bans on electronic cigarette sales to minors and smoking among high school students," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 17-24.
    12. Jeff DeSimone & Daniel Grossman & Nicolas Ziebarth, 2023. "Regression Discontinuity Evidence on the Effectiveness of the Minimum Legal E-cigarette Purchasing Age," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 461-485.
    13. Hansen, Benjamin & Sabia, Joseph J. & McNichols, Drew & Bryan, Calvin, 2023. "Do tobacco 21 laws work?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Ceren Ertan Yörük & Barş K. Yörük, 2016. "Do Minimum Legal Tobacco Purchase Age Laws Work?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(3), pages 415-429, July.
    15. Zhuan Pei & Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Hannes Schwandt, 2019. "Poorly Measured Confounders are More Useful on the Left than on the Right," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 205-216, April.
    16. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    17. Nonnemaker, James M. & Farrelly, Matthew C., 2011. "Smoking initiation among youth: The role of cigarette excise taxes and prices by race/ethnicity and gender," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 560-567, May.
    18. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    19. Dhaval Dave & Daniel Dench & Donald Kenkel & Alan Mathios & Hua Wang, 2020. "News that takes your breath away: risk perceptions during an outbreak of vaping-related lung injuries," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 281-307, June.
    20. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams, 2017. "Compliance Inspections of Tobacco Retailers and Youth Smoking," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 10-32, Winter.
    21. Cotti, Chad & Nesson, Erik & Tefft, Nathan, 2018. "The relationship between cigarettes and electronic cigarettes: Evidence from household panel data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 205-219.
    22. Bo Feng & Michael F. Pesko, 2019. "Revisiting the Effects of Tobacco Retailer Compliance Inspections on Youth Tobacco Use," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 5(4), pages 509-532, Fall.
    23. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams, 2017. "Compliance Inspections of Tobacco Retailers and Youth Smoking," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 10-32, Winter.
    24. Friedman, Abigail S., 2015. "How does electronic cigarette access affect adolescent smoking?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 300-308.
    25. W. Kip Viscusi, 2016. "Risk Beliefs and Preferences for E-cigarettes," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(2), pages 213-240, Spring.
    26. Michael F. Pesko & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2020. "The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult tobacco product use," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 229-258, June.
    27. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    28. W. Kip Viscusi, 2020. "Electronic cigarette risk beliefs and usage after the vaping illness outbreak," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 259-279, June.
    29. Benjamin Hansen & Joseph J. Sabia & Daniel I. Rees, 2017. "Have Cigarette Taxes Lost Their Bite? New Estimates of the Relationship between Cigarette Taxes and Youth Smoking," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 60-75, Winter.
    30. Michael F. Pesko, 2023. "Effects of e-cigarette minimum legal sales ages on youth tobacco use in the United States," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 261-277, June.
    31. Bo Feng & Michael F. Pesko, 2019. "Revisiting the Effects of Tobacco Retailer Compliance Inspections on Youth Tobacco Use," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 509-532, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lawrence Jin & Don Kenkel & Michael Lovenheim & Alan Mathios & Hua Wang, 2024. "Misinformation, consumer risk perceptions, and markets: The impact of an information shock on vaping and smoking cessation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(4), pages 1652-1678, October.
    2. Ege Aksu & Prabal K. De & Laxman Timilsina, 2024. "New evidence on the health and employment effects of non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 interventions on workers in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2771-2819, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erica Louis Mtenga & Michael F. Pesko, 2024. "The effect of vertical identification card laws on teenage tobacco and alcohol use," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(11), pages 2525-2557, November.
    2. Michael F. Pesko, 2023. "Effects of e-cigarette minimum legal sales ages on youth tobacco use in the United States," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 261-277, June.
    3. Michael F. Pesko & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2020. "The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult tobacco product use," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 229-258, June.
    4. Michael E. Darden, 2024. "Optimal e-cigarette policy when preferences and internalities are correlated," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 107-131, April.
    5. Michael F. Pesko & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2019. "The Effects of Traditional Cigarette and E-Cigarette Taxes on Adult Tobacco Product Use," NBER Working Papers 26017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jeff DeSimone & Daniel Grossman & Nicolas Ziebarth, 2023. "Regression Discontinuity Evidence on the Effectiveness of the Minimum Legal E-cigarette Purchasing Age," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 461-485.
    7. Michael F. Pesko & Casey Warman, 2022. "Re‐exploring the early relationship between teenage cigarette and e‐cigarette use using price and tax changes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 137-153, January.
    8. Abouk, Rahi & Courtemanche, Charles & Dave, Dhaval & Feng, Bo & Friedman, Abigail S. & Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Pesko, Michael F. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Safford, Samuel, 2023. "Intended and unintended effects of e-cigarette taxes on youth tobacco use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Cotti, Chad D. & Courtemanche, Charles J. & Liang, Yang & Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Nesson, Erik T. & Sabia, Joseph J., 2024. "The Effect of E-Cigarette Flavor Bans on Tobacco Use," Working Papers 114, Wake Forest University, Economics Department.
    10. Cotti, Chad & Courtemanche, Charles & Maclean, Joanna Catherine & Nesson, Erik & Pesko, Michael F. & Tefft, Nathan W., 2022. "The effects of e-cigarette taxes on e-cigarette prices and tobacco product sales: Evidence from retail panel data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams & Bo Feng & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Michael F. Pesko, 2023. "The effect of e‐cigarette taxes on pre‐pregnancy and prenatal smoking," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 908-940, September.
    12. Meier, Armando N. & Odermatt, Reto & Stutzer, Alois, 2021. "Tobacco sales prohibition and teen smoking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 998-1014.
    13. Anna Choi & Dhaval Dave & Joseph J. Sabia, 2019. "Smoke Gets in Your Eyes: Medical Marijuana Laws and Tobacco Cigarette Use," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 303-333, Summer.
    14. Hansen, Benjamin & Sabia, Joseph J. & McNichols, Drew & Bryan, Calvin, 2023. "Do tobacco 21 laws work?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. D. Mark Anderson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Teen Marijuana Use," NBER Working Papers 26780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Michael Kvasnicka & Thomas Siedler & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2018. "The health effects of smoking bans: Evidence from German hospitalization data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(11), pages 1738-1753, November.
    17. Sen Choudhury, Rebecca & Conway, Karen Smith, 2020. "The effect of tobacco policies on youth physical activity," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    18. Lauren Hoehn-Velasco & Michael F. Pesko & Serena Phillips, 2023. "The Long-Term Impact of in Utero Cigarette Taxes on Adult Prenatal Smoking," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 605-648.
    19. Andrew Friedson & Moyan Li & Katherine Meckel & Daniel I. Rees & Daniel W. Sacks, 2024. "Exposure to cigarette taxes as a teenager and the persistence of smoking into adulthood," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 1962-1988, September.
    20. Vinish Shrestha, 2022. "Revisiting the Effects of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking Outcomes," Working Papers 2022-02, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2024.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tobacco 21; Youth tobacco use;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s0167629624000055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505560 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.