Unravelling the provisioning system of a strategic food commodity to minimise import dependency: A study of garlic in Indonesia

The debate surrounding the choice between self-producing or importing strategic food commodities becomes increasingly intriguing due to the complex dynamics of societies experiencing population growth and rising consumption. The case of garlic supply in Indonesia serves as an example. Despite Indonesia's efforts to enhance domestic production, the country still relies on imported garlic. Various government initiatives have been launched, but they have not succeeded in increasing production or reducing dependence on imports. Therefore, a more thorough analysis is required to comprehend the system's behaviour and the underlying causes hindering the achievement of targets. This study employs a systems thinking approach to examine the Indonesian garlic supply system. Through a participatory method involving key stakeholders in the garlic industry, we identify the problems inherent in the system that contribute to its behaviour. The primary issues impeding the growth of national garlic production are the influx of cheaper imported garlic and the increasing national demand. Additionally, factors like production inefficiencies and limited market penetration for locally produced garlic exacerbate these problems. By formulating dynamic hypotheses, we identify recurring patterns and propose areas for improvement. Furthermore, we offer recommendations pertaining to production, marketing, and import control. Our study illustrates how a system thinking approach can furnish recommendations for addressing persistent challenges in complex agro-industrial systems. We propose that our research serves as a reference for conducting comprehensive value chain analyses in intricate agricultural industries, particularly in developing countries where the need for importing strategic agricultural commodities still persists.