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Uncertainty about what is in the price

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  • Peress, Joël
  • Schmidt, Daniel

Abstract

A critical question facing speculators contemplating to trade on private information is whether their signal has already been priced in by the market. In our model, speculators assess the novelty of their information based on recent price movements, and market makers are aware that speculators might be trading on stale news. An asymmetric response to past price movements ensues: after price increases, buy volume – because it may result from stale news trading – has a lower price impact than sell volume (and vice versa after price decreases). Consequently, return skewness is negatively related to lagged returns. We find strong support for these and other predictions using a comprehensive sample of US stocks.

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  • Peress, Joël & Schmidt, Daniel, 2024. "Uncertainty about what is in the price," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:161:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24001387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103915
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic trading; Learning from prices; Price impact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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