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The credit supply channel of monetary policy tightening and its distributional impacts

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  • Bosshardt, Joshua
  • Di Maggio, Marco
  • Kakhbod, Ali
  • Kermani, Amir

Abstract

This paper studies how tightening monetary policy transmits to the economy through the mortgage market and sheds new light on the distributional consequences at both individual and regional levels. We specifically examine the sharp increase in mortgage interest rates during 2022 and 2023. We find that almost all of the decline in mortgages compared to prior years was concentrated in loans that would have had a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio above underwriting thresholds. These effects are even more pronounced for minority and middle-income borrowers. Additionally, regions more affected by the thresholds exhibited greater reductions in mortgage originations, house prices, and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Bosshardt, Joshua & Di Maggio, Marco & Kakhbod, Ali & Kermani, Amir, 2024. "The credit supply channel of monetary policy tightening and its distributional impacts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:160:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24001375
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103914
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    1. William D. Larson, 2022. "Effects of Mortgage Interest Rates on House Price Appreciation: The Role of Payment Constraints," FHFA Staff Working Papers 22-04, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
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    3. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    4. Bartlett, Robert & Morse, Adair & Stanton, Richard & Wallace, Nancy, 2022. "Consumer-lending discrimination in the FinTech Era," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 30-56.
    5. Michael Carlos Best & James S Cloyne & Ethan Ilzetzki & Henrik J Kleven, 2020. "Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(2), pages 656-690.
    6. Gyourko, Joseph & Hartley, Jonathan S. & Krimmel, Jacob, 2021. "The local residential land use regulatory environment across U.S. housing markets: Evidence from a new Wharton index," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Christopher J Palmer, 2020. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1498-1528.
    8. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Albuquerque & Martin Iseringhausen & Frederic Opitz, 2024. "The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2024/023, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Mortgage lending; House prices; Debt-to-income (DTI);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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