IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v142y2021i3p1001-1016.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Failing to forecast rare events

Author

Listed:
  • Bond, Philip
  • Dow, James

Abstract

Do more talented traders prefer to bet on and against rare events or common events? Bets on rare events include out of the money options. Bets against rare events include the carry trade and investment grade bonds. In a model where traders specialize, equilibrium pricing reflects trading ability: A market with more skilled traders has a larger bid ask spread. We show that lower skill traders bet on and against rare events, while higher skill traders bet on and against frequent events, leading to higher bid-ask spreads in common event assets, and reducing financial markets’ ability to predict rare events.

Suggested Citation

  • Bond, Philip & Dow, James, 2021. "Failing to forecast rare events," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1001-1016.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:142:y:2021:i:3:p:1001-1016
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X21002981
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Performance Measurement without Benchmarks: An Examination of Mutual Fund Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(1), pages 47-68, January.
    2. Calice, Giovanni & Chen, Jing & Williams, Julian, 2013. "Liquidity spillovers in sovereign bond and CDS markets: An analysis of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 122-143.
    3. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    4. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2010. "Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 779-805.
    5. Bruce Ian Carlin & Simon Gervais, 2009. "Work Ethic, Employment Contracts, and Firm Value," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 785-821, April.
    6. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    7. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2006. "Information Markets and the Comovement of Asset Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 823-845.
    8. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    9. James Dow, 2004. "Is Liquidity Self-Fulfilling?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 895-908, October.
    10. Dow, James, 1998. "Arbitrage, Hedging, and Financial Innovation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 739-755.
    11. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    12. Goldstein, Michael A. & Hotchkiss, Edith S., 2020. "Providing liquidity in an illiquid market: Dealer behavior in US corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 16-40.
    13. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    14. Robert Kosowski & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers & Hal White, 2006. "Can Mutual Fund “Stars” Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2551-2595, December.
    15. Rajna Gibson & Sébastien Gyger, 2007. "The Style Consistency of Hedge Funds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(2), pages 287-308, March.
    16. Jakub W. Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2015. "The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2185-2226, October.
    17. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    18. A. D. Roy, 1951. "Some Thoughts On The Distribution Of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 135-146.
    19. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
    20. Amy K. Edwards & Lawrence E. Harris & Michael S. Piwowar, 2007. "Corporate Bond Market Transaction Costs and Transparency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1421-1451, June.
    21. Korteweg, Arthur & Sorensen, Morten, 2017. "Skill and luck in private equity performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 535-562.
    22. Amit Gandhi & Ricardo Serrano-Padial, 2015. "Does Belief Heterogeneity Explain Asset Prices: The Case of the Longshot Bias," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 156-186.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dahlstrand Rudin, Amanda, 2022. "Defying distance? The provision of services in the digital age," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Amanda Dahlstrand, 2022. "Defying distance? The provision of services in the digital age," CEP Discussion Papers dp1889, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2018. "Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1663-1712, August.
    2. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    3. Gabor Pinter & Chaojun Wang & Junyuan Zou, 2024. "Size Discount and Size Penalty: Trading Costs in Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(7), pages 2156-2190.
    4. Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
    5. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    6. Kruger, Samuel, 2018. "Disagreement and Liquidity," SocArXiv mfx6w, Center for Open Science.
    7. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    8. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Robert Litzenberger & Jeff Castura & Richard Gorelick, 2012. "The Impacts of Automation and High Frequency Trading on Market Quality," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 59-98, October.
    10. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2009. "Liquidity and asset prices: a united framework," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29303, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Lester, Benjamin & Shourideh, Ali & Venkateswaran, Venky & Zetlin-Jones, Ariel, 2023. "Market-making with search and information frictions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    13. Ardalan, Kavous, 1998. "Financial markets with asymmetric information: An expository review of seminal models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-51.
    14. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2020. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Liquidity and Asset Returns Under Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1339-1365.
    16. Liu, Hong & Wang, Yajun, 2016. "Market making with asymmetric information and inventory risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 73-109.
    17. Richard A. Lambert & Christian Leuz & Robert E. Verrecchia, 2011. "Information Asymmetry, Information Precision, and the Cost of Capital," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29.
    18. Haghighi, Afshin & Zhang, Lei & Oliver, Barry & Faff, Robert, 2023. "Information acquisition and market liquidity: Evidence from EDGAR search activity," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Rochet, Jean-Charles. & Vila, Jean-Luc., 1991. "Insider trading and market manipulations--existence and uniqueness of equilibrium," Working papers 3318-91., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    20. Marmora, Paul & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2018. "Learning about noise," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 209-224.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bid ask spread; Information production; Rare event; Black swan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:142:y:2021:i:3:p:1001-1016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.