IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v142y2021i1p146-165.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Entangled risks in incomplete FX markets

Author

Listed:
  • Maurer, Thomas
  • Tran, Ngoc-Khanh

Abstract

We introduce the concept of risk entanglement in a preference-free setting to jointly explain the exchange rate volatility, cyclicality, and currency risk premia in the data. Risk entanglement specifies a subset of incomplete market models, in which nondiffusive or nonlog-normal shocks to exchange rates are not fully spanned by asset returns. When risks are entangled, there exist multiple pricing-consistent exchange rates, but none of them are equal to the ratio of the stochastic discount factors (SDFs) or their projections. Decoupling the exchange rate from the SDFs allows us to address key FX market patterns that are puzzling in international finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurer, Thomas & Tran, Ngoc-Khanh, 2021. "Entangled risks in incomplete FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 146-165.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:142:y:2021:i:1:p:146-165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X21002452
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.051?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    2. Gabaix, Xavier & Verdelhan, Adrien & Rancière, Romain & Farhi, Emmanuel & Fraiberger, Samuel P., 2009. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Robert Ready & Nikolai Roussanov & Colin Ward, 2017. "Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: A Tale of Two Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2629-2684, December.
    4. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    5. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    6. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
    7. Brandt, Michael W. & Cochrane, John H. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2006. "International risk sharing is better than you think, or exchange rates are too smooth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 671-698, May.
    8. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
    9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    10. Chien, YiLi & Lustig, Hanno & Naknoi, Kanda, 2020. "Why are exchange rates so smooth? A household finance explanation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 129-144.
    11. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2013. "International Asset Pricing with Recursive Preferences," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2651-2686, December.
    12. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Editor's Choice Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 1-52.
    13. Ready, Robert & Roussanov, Nikolai & Ward, Colin, 2017. "After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 69-86.
    14. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
    15. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    16. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Household Heterogeneity and the Real Exchange Rate: Still a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Zapatero, Fernando, 1995. "Equilibrium asset prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 787-811, May.
    18. Robert Ready & Mariano Croce & Federico Gavazzoni & Riccardo Colacito, 2016. "Currency Risk Factors in a Recursive Multi-Country Economy," 2016 Meeting Papers 297, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011. "Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153-181.
    20. Ric Colacito & Mariano M. Croce & Federico Gavazzoni & Robert Ready, 2018. "Currency Risk Factors in a Recursive Multicountry Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2719-2756, December.
    21. Ric Colacito & Max Croce & Steven Ho & Philip Howard, 2018. "BKK the EZ Way: International Long-Run Growth News and Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3416-3449, November.
    22. Chaieb, Ines & Errunza, Vihang, 2007. "International asset pricing under segmentation and PPP deviations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 543-578, November.
    23. Sergei Sarkissian, 2003. "Incomplete Consumption Risk Sharing and Currency Risk Premiums," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 983-1005, July.
    24. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2004. "Disentangling diffusion from jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 487-528, December.
    25. repec:oup:rfinst:v:26:y::i:1:p:1-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Gurdip Bakshi & Mario Cerrato & John Crosby, 2018. "Implications of Incomplete Markets for International Economies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(10), pages 4017-4062.
    27. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2019. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2208-2244, June.
    28. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    29. Thomas A. Maurer & Thuy-Duong Tô & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2019. "Pricing Risks Across Currency Denominations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5308-5336, November.
    30. Robert J. Richmond, 2019. "Trade Network Centrality and Currency Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(3), pages 1315-1361, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Yousaf, Imran & Karim, Sitara & Yarovaya, Larisa & Ali, Shoaib, 2023. "Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.
    2. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    3. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & George Panayotov, 2021. "A Theory of Dissimilarity Between Stochastic Discount Factors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4602-4622, July.
    4. Gavazzoni, Federico & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2020. "International R&D spillovers and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 330-354.
    5. Mirela Sandulescu & Fabio Trojani & Andrea Vedolin, 2021. "Model‐Free International Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 935-976, April.
    6. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Jiang, Zhengyang & Richmond, Robert J., 2023. "Origins of international factor structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 1-26.
    9. Mikhail Chernov & Magnus Dahlquist & Lars Lochstoer, 2023. "Pricing Currency Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 693-730, April.
    10. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2016. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 22023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    12. Robert Ready & Mariano Croce & Federico Gavazzoni & Riccardo Colacito, 2016. "Currency Risk Factors in a Recursive Multi-Country Economy," 2016 Meeting Papers 297, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Andrews, Spencer & Colacito, Riccardo & Croce, Mariano M. & Gavazzoni, Federico, 2024. "Concealed carry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Fang, Xiang & Liu, Yang, 2021. "Volatility, intermediaries, and exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 217-233.
    15. Chien, YiLi & Lustig, Hanno & Naknoi, Kanda, 2020. "Why are exchange rates so smooth? A household finance explanation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 129-144.
    16. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2018. "An intermediation-based model of exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 743, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 27615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Gurdip Bakshi & Mario Cerrato & John Crosby, 2016. "Studying the Implications of Consumption and Asset Return Data for Stochastic Discount Factors in Incomplete International Economies," Working Papers 2017_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    19. Mueller, Philippe & Stathopoulos, Andreas & Vedolin, Andrea, 2017. "International correlation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 270-299.
    20. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; International finance puzzles; Entangled risks; Jump risks; Incomplete markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:142:y:2021:i:1:p:146-165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.