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Can unpredictable risk exposure be priced?

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  • Barahona, Ricardo
  • Driessen, Joost
  • Frehen, Rik

Abstract

We study the link between beta predictability and the price of risk. An investor who desires exposure to a certain risk factor needs to predict what next period’s beta will be. We use a simple model to show that an ambiguity averse agent’s demand is lower when betas are hard to predict, leading to a reduction in risk premiums. We test the implications for downside betas and VIX betas. We find that they have economically and statistically small prices of risk once we account for the fact that an investor cannot observe ex-post realized betas when determining asset demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Barahona, Ricardo & Driessen, Joost & Frehen, Rik, 2021. "Can unpredictable risk exposure be priced?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 522-544.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:139:y:2021:i:2:p:522-544
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.08.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Yezhou Sha & Ziwen Bu & Zilong Wang, 2023. "What drives the distress risk–return puzzle? A perspective on limits of arbitrage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3574-3592, October.
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    7. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity aversion; Beta uncertainty; Hedging demand; Price of risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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