IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jebusi/v120y2022ics0148619522000145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How bad is a bad loan? Distinguishing inherent credit risk from inefficient lending (Does the capital market price this difference?)

Author

Listed:
  • Hughes, Joseph P.
  • Moon, Choon-Geol

Abstract

Small community banks and the largest banks experience higher ratios of nonperforming loans than other sizes of banks. To what extent does their nonperformance result from lending to riskier borrowers, and to what extent does it result from a lack of proficiency at loan making? Does market discipline punish or reward credit risk and lending proficiency? Using stochastic frontier estimation, we develop a technique to decompose banks’ ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans into three components: the best-practice ratio representing the inherent credit risk of the loan portfolio, the excess ratio representing lending inefficiency, and statistical noise. We apply the decomposition technique to data from 2010, 2013, and 2016 on top-tier U.S. bank holding companies. The largest banks with consolidated assets exceeding $250 billion experience the highest ratio of nonperformance among the five size groups. Our decomposition shows that the high ratio of nonperformance of the largest banks appears to result from lending to riskier borrowers, not inefficiency at lending. Restricting the sample to publicly traded bank holding companies, we find that the nonperformance ratio is negatively related to market value except at the largest banks. When the two components of the nonperformance ratio are used instead, we uncover a more informative underlying story: taking more inherent credit risk enhances market value at many more large banks and the value-enhancing effect increases sharply from 2010 to 2016, whereas lending inefficiency is negatively related to market value at all banks and more so from 2010 to 2016. Market discipline appears to reward riskier lending at large banks and discourage lending inefficiency at all banks − incentives that are both increasing over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Hughes, Joseph P. & Moon, Choon-Geol, 2022. "How bad is a bad loan? Distinguishing inherent credit risk from inefficient lending (Does the capital market price this difference?)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:120:y:2022:i:c:s0148619522000145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2022.106058
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619522000145
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2022.106058?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hughes, Joseph P. & Jagtiani, Julapa & Mester, Loretta J., 2016. "Is Bigger Necessarily Better in Community Banking?," Working Papers 17-03, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    2. Michel A. Habib & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2005. "Firm Value and Managerial Incentives: A Stochastic Frontier Approach," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2053-2094, November.
    3. Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. "Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-1244, December.
    4. Hughes, Joseph P. & Mester, Loretta J., 2013. "Who said large banks don’t experience scale economies? Evidence from a risk-return-driven cost function," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 559-585.
    5. Joseph P. Hughes & Julapa Jagtiani & Choon-Geol Moon, 2022. "Consumer lending efficiency: commercial banks versus a fintech lender," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-39, December.
    6. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Vikrant Vig, 2022. "The Limits of Model‐Based Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1635-1684, June.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2185-2204 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1219-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hughes, Joseph P. & Lang, William W. & Mester, Loretta J. & Moon, Choon-Geol & Pagano, Michael S., 2003. "Do bankers sacrifice value to build empires? Managerial incentives, industry consolidation, and financial performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 417-447, March.
    10. Donald Morgan & Adam Ashcraft, 2003. "Using Loan Rates to Measure and Regulate Bank Risk: Findings and an Immodest Proposal," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 181-200, October.
    11. Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1995. "The Effect of Credit Market Competition on Lending Relationships," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 407-443.
    12. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    13. Jean Beuve & Stéphane Saussier & Julie de Brux, 2018. "An Economic Analysis of Public-Private Partnerships," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02139523, HAL.
    14. Matthew Plosser & João A. C. Santos, 2014. "Banks' incentives and the quality of internal risk models," Staff Reports 704, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Berger, Allen N. & Mester, Loretta J., 1997. "Inside the black box: What explains differences in the efficiencies of financial institutions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 895-947, July.
    16. Caprio, Gerard & Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2007. "Governance and bank valuation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 584-617, October.
    17. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Econometric Modelling: The ‘Consumption Function’ In Retrospect," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 495-522, November.
    18. Herring, Richard J & Vankudre, Prashant, 1987. "Growth Opportunities and Risk-Taking by Financial Intermediaries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 583-599, July.
    19. Baele, Lieven & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2007. "Does the stock market value bank diversification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1999-2023, July.
    20. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson (ed.), 2005. "General-to-Specific Modelling," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 2417.
    21. Ing-Haw Cheng & Harrison Hong & José A. Scheinkman, 2015. "Yesterday's Heroes: Compensation and Risk at Financial Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 839-879, April.
    22. McConnell, John J. & Servaes, Henri, 1995. "Equity ownership and the two faces of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 131-157, September.
    23. Julapa Jagtiani & Catharine Lemieux, 2019. "The roles of alternative data and machine learning in fintech lending: Evidence from the LendingClub consumer platform," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 1009-1029, December.
    24. Hughes, Joseph P. & Mester, Loretta J. & Moon, Choon-Geol, 2001. "Are scale economies in banking elusive or illusive?: Evidence obtained by incorporating capital structure and risk-taking into models of bank production," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2169-2208, December.
    25. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 2016. "Market Discipline Working for and Against Financial Stability: The Two Faces of Equity Capital in U.S. Commercial Banking," Departmental Working Papers 201611, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    26. Herring, Richard J., 2018. "The Evolving Complexity of Capital Regulation," Working Papers 18-01, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    27. Croux, Christophe & Jagtiani, Julapa & Korivi, Tarunsai & Vulanovic, Milos, 2020. "Important factors determining Fintech loan default: Evidence from a lendingclub consumer platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 270-296.
    28. Richard J. Herring, 2018. "The Evolving Complexity of Capital Regulation," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 183-205, June.
    29. Joseph Hughes, 1999. "Incorporating risk into the analysis of production," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(1), pages 1-23, March.
    30. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1988. "Management ownership and market valuation," Scholarly Articles 29407535, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    31. Jondrow, James & Knox Lovell, C. A. & Materov, Ivan S. & Schmidt, Peter, 1982. "On the estimation of technical inefficiency in the stochastic frontier production function model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 233-238, August.
    32. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1988. "Management ownership and market valuation : An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 293-315, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shi, Tao & Li, Chongyang & Wanyan, Hong & Xu, Ying & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "The lending risk predicting of the folk informal financial organization from big data using the deep learning hybrid model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Hughes, Joseph P. & Jagtiani, Julapa & Mester, Loretta J. & Moon, Choon-Geol, 2019. "Does scale matter in community bank performance? Evidence obtained by applying several new measures of performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 471-499.
    3. Joseph P. Hughes & Julapa Jagtiani & Choon-Geol Moon, 2022. "Consumer lending efficiency: commercial banks versus a fintech lender," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-39, December.
    4. Ferreira, Cândida, 2021. "Efficiency of European Banks in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: A Panel Stochastic Frontier Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 36(1), pages 103-124.
    5. Joseph P. Hughes, 2018. "Comments on “The Evolving Complexity of Capital Regulation”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 207-210, June.
    6. Ze Song, 2019. "Long Term Health Efect of Earned Income Tax Credit," Departmental Working Papers 201902, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    7. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, 2018. "The Performance of Financial Institutions: Modeling, Evidence, and Some Policy Implications," Departmental Working Papers 201805, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, 2018. "The Performance of Financial Institutions: Modeling, Evidence, and Some Policy Implications," Departmental Working Papers 201805, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    2. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 2016. "Market Discipline Working for and Against Financial Stability: The Two Faces of Equity Capital in U.S. Commercial Banking," Departmental Working Papers 201611, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    3. Hughes, Joseph P. & Mester, Loretta J., 2013. "Measuring the Performance of Banks: Theory, Practice, Evidence, and Some Policy Implications," Working Papers 13-28, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    4. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, 2012. "A Primer on Market Discipline and Governance of Financial Institutions for Those in a State of Shocked Disbelief," Departmental Working Papers 201204, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    5. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 2017. "Measuring agency costs and the value of investment opportunities of US bank holding companies with stochastic frontier estimation," Chapters, in: Jacob A. Bikker & Laura Spierdijk (ed.), Handbook of Competition in Banking and Finance, chapter 11, pages 205-229, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Joseph P. Hughes & Julapa Jagtiani & Choon-Geol Moon, 2022. "Consumer lending efficiency: commercial banks versus a fintech lender," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-39, December.
    7. Hughes, Joseph P. & Jagtiani, Julapa & Mester, Loretta J. & Moon, Choon-Geol, 2019. "Does scale matter in community bank performance? Evidence obtained by applying several new measures of performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 471-499.
    8. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, 2008. "Efficiency in banking: theory, practice, and evidence," Working Papers 08-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Hughes, Joseph P. & Lang, William W. & Mester, Loretta J. & Moon, Choon-Geol & Pagano, Michael S., 2003. "Do bankers sacrifice value to build empires? Managerial incentives, industry consolidation, and financial performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 417-447, March.
    10. Joseph P. Hughes & Julapa Jagtiani & Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "Is Bigger Necessarily Better in Community Banking?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1615, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Joseph Olorunfemi Akande & Farai Kwenda, 2017. "Does Competition Cause Stability in Banks? SFA and GMM Application to Sub-Saharan Africa Commercial Banks," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(4), pages 173-186.
    12. Saghi-Zedek, Nadia & Tarazi, Amine, 2015. "Excess control rights, financial crisis and bank profitability and risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 361-379.
    13. Ze Song, 2019. "Long Term Health Efect of Earned Income Tax Credit," Departmental Working Papers 201902, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    14. Wilson, John O.S. & Casu, Barbara & Girardone, Claudia & Molyneux, Philip, 2010. "Emerging themes in banking: Recent literature and directions for future research," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 153-169.
    15. Goddard, John & McKillop, Donal G. & Wilson, John O.S., 2023. "Who consumes the credit union subsidies?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Williams, Jonathan, 2013. "The random parameters stochastic frontier cost function and the effectiveness of public policy: Evidence from bank restructuring in Mexico," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 98-108.
    17. Amira Neffati & Wided Khiari & Azhaar Lajmi, 2020. "Corporate Governance And Post-Merger Performance: Evidence From Us Banks," Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 9(3), pages 99-113.
    18. Hughes, Joseph P. & Mester, Loretta J., 2013. "Who said large banks don’t experience scale economies? Evidence from a risk-return-driven cost function," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 559-585.
    19. Abedifar, Pejman & Molyneux, Philip & Tarazi, Amine, 2018. "Non-interest income and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 411-426.
    20. Robert DeYoung & Kenneth Spong & Richard J. Sullivan, 1999. "Who's minding the store? motivating and monitoring hired managers at small, closely held firms: the case of commercial banks," Working Paper Series WP-99-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commercial banking; Credit risk; Nonperforming loans; Efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:120:y:2022:i:c:s0148619522000145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-economics-and-business .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.