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Population heterogeneity, state dependence and sexual offender recidivism: The aging process and the lost predictive impact of prior criminal charges over time

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  • Amirault, Joanna
  • Lussier, Patrick

Abstract

Purpose Two competing theories explain the link between past and future criminal behavior: population heterogeneity and state dependence. Actuarial models of risk prediction emphasize static variables, akin to population heterogeneity. State dependence, has never been tested with similar populations.Methods Using survival modeling this study examines both population heterogeneity and state dependence using a sample of adult sex offenders incarcerated in Quebec, Canada from 1994-2000. Analyses were conducted on offenders age 36 and over (n = 242). Official criminal activity was measured at: (a) 18-23 years; (b) 24-29 years; (c) 30-35 years; and, (d) 36 + years.Results Cox proportional hazards modeling shows stronger evidence for state dependence, suggesting changeability in risk over time.Conclusions Support was found for both offending continuity and discontinuity, or a mixed model of offending. Current actuarial risk assessment tools for adult sex offenders do not accommodate for the inclusion of state dependent and life-course processes, which could have implications for the potential overestimation of offender risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Amirault, Joanna & Lussier, Patrick, 2011. "Population heterogeneity, state dependence and sexual offender recidivism: The aging process and the lost predictive impact of prior criminal charges over time," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 344-354, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:39:y:2011:i:4:p:344-354
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harris, Danielle A. & Smallbone, Stephen & Dennison, Susan & Knight, Raymond A., 2009. "Specialization and versatility in sexual offenders referred for civil commitment," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 37-44, January.
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    1. Benjamin Monnery, 2015. "The determinants of recidivism among ex-prisoners: a survival analysis on French data," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 37-56, February.
    2. Lussier, Patrick & Frechette, Julien, 2022. "Community reentry and the revolving door problem: Are individuals convicted of sexual offenses adequately prepared?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Lussier, Patrick & Bouchard, Martin & Beauregard, Eric, 2011. "Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 433-444.
    4. Reckdenwald, Amy & Mancini, Christina & Beauregard, Eric, 2014. "Adolescent self-image as a mediator between childhood maltreatment and adult sexual offending," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 85-94.
    5. Lussier, Patrick & Blokland, Arjan, 2014. "The adolescence-adulthood transition and Robins’s continuity paradox: Criminal career patterns of juvenile and adult sex offenders in a prospective longitudinal birth cohort study," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 153-163.
    6. Mancini, Christina & Reckdenwald, Amy & Beauregard, Eric & Levenson, Jill S., 2014. "Sex industry exposure over the life course on the onset and frequency of sex offending," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 507-516.
    7. Lussier, Patrick & McCuish, Evan, 2024. "Revisiting the sexual recidivism drop in Canada and the United States: A meta-analysis of 468 empirical studies involving 388,994 individuals," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. Lussier, Patrick & Deslauriers-Varin, Nadine & Collin-Santerre, Justine & Bélanger, Roxane, 2019. "Using decision tree algorithms to screen individuals at risk of entry into sexual recidivism," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 12-24.

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