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Market states, sentiment, and momentum in the corporate bond market

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  • Li, Lifang
  • Galvani, Valentina

Abstract

We show that momentum profits for corporate bonds depend on the state of the market (UP/DOWN), as already documented for equities. Momentum gains exclusively follow UP periods. In contrast, DOWN markets herald momentum losses. Importantly, this study links momentum gains to underpricing, as measured by low sentiment. In particular, the UP-market momentum gains are generated exclusively by momentum portfolios formed in periods of low sentiment. The DOWN-market reversal returns in low sentiment are even larger than the UP-market momentum gains. We also introduce a novel top-volume bond momentum strategy and show that it yields large and persistent unconditional profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Lifang & Galvani, Valentina, 2018. "Market states, sentiment, and momentum in the corporate bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 249-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:89:y:2018:i:c:p:249-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.02.007
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    Cited by:

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    2. Galvani, Valentina, 2024. "Frog in the Pan and the market-state effect on momentum," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Lifang Li & Valentina Galvani, 2021. "Informed Trading and Momentum in the Corporate Bond Market [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1773-1816.
    4. Samuel YM Ze‐To, 2022. "Fundamental index aligned and excess market return predictability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 592-614, April.
    5. Galvani, Valentina & Li, Lifang, 2023. "Outliers and momentum in the corporate bond market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 135-148.
    6. Galvani, Valentina & Li, Lifang, 2018. "Asymmetric Information, Predictability and Momentum in the Corporate Bond Market," Working Papers 2018-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    7. Zhuo Li & Meiyu Tian & Guangda Ouyang & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Relationship between investor sentiment and earnings news in high‐ and low‐sentiment periods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2748-2765, April.
    8. Chaonan Lin & Nien‐Tzu Yang & Robin K. Chou & Kuan‐Cheng Ko, 2022. "A timing momentum strategy," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(S1), pages 1339-1379, April.
    9. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2022. "U.S. banks’ lending, financial stability, and text-based sentiment analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 73-90.
    10. Zhang, Heming & Wang, Guanying, 2021. "Reversal effect and corporate bond pricing in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Li, Yulin, 2021. "Investor sentiment and sovereign bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. An-Sing Chen & Che-Ming Yang, 2020. "Momentum Market States And Capital Structure Adjustment Speed," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 14(2), pages 37-49.
    13. Costa, Filipe & Fortuna, Natércia & Lobão, Júlio, 2024. "Herding states and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Houda BenMabrouk & Ismahen Souayeh, 2021. "Momentum profits: Fundamentals or time varying unsystematic risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 777-789, January.

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