IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v39y2014icp1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

CDOs and the financial crisis: Credit ratings and fair premia

Author

Listed:
  • Wojtowicz, Marcin

Abstract

We study risk and return characteristics of CDOs using the market standard models. We find that fair spreads on CDO tranches are much higher than fair spreads on similarly-rated corporate bonds. Our results imply that credit ratings are not sufficient for pricing, which is surprising given their central role in structured finance markets. This illustrates limitations of the rating methodologies that are solely based on real-world default probabilities or expected losses and do not capture risk premia. We also demonstrate that CDO tranches have large exposure to systematic risk and thus their ratings and prices are likely to decline substantially when credit conditions deteriorate.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojtowicz, Marcin, 2014. "CDOs and the financial crisis: Credit ratings and fair premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.10.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613004068
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.10.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jie He & Jun Qian & Philip E. Strahan, 2011. "Credit Ratings and the Evolution of the Mortgage-Backed Securities Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 131-135, May.
    2. Franke, Günter & Herrmann, Markus & Weber, Thomas, 2012. "Loss Allocation in Securitization Transactions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(5), pages 1125-1153, October.
    3. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas & Joel Shapiro, 2012. "The Credit Ratings Game," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 85-112, February.
    4. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Fan Yang, 2012. "On the Relative Pricing of Long-Maturity Index Options and Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 1983-2014, December.
    5. Joshua Coval & Jakub Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2009. "The Economics of Structured Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 3-25, Winter.
    6. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Wilde, Christian, 2008. "Risk transfer with CDOs," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Joshua D. Coval & Jakub W. Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2009. "Economic Catastrophe Bonds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 628-666, June.
    8. Benmelech, Efraim & Dlugosz, Jennifer, 2009. "The alchemy of CDO credit ratings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 617-634, July.
    9. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
    10. Antje Berndt & Rohan Douglas & Darrell Duffie & Mark Ferguson, "undated". "Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E31, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    11. Ingo Fender & Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Credit fundamentals, ratings and value-at-risk: CDOs versus corporate exposures," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Bar-Isaac, Heski & Shapiro, Joel, 2013. "Ratings quality over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-78.
    13. Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, April.
    14. Lawrence R. Cordell & Yilin Huang & Meredith Williams, 2011. "Collateral damage: Sizing and assessing the subprime CDO crisis," Working Papers 11-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2011. "The Bear's Lair: Index Credit Default Swaps and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(10), pages 3250-3280.
    16. Efraim Benmelech & Jennifer Dlugosz, 2010. "The Credit Rating Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 161-207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Michael J. Brennan & Julia Hein & Ser†Huang Poon, 2009. "Tranching and Rating," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(5), pages 891-922, November.
    18. John M. Griffin & Dragon Yongjun Tang, 2011. "Did Credit Rating Agencies Make Unbiased Assumptions on CDOs?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 125-130, May.
    19. Opp, Christian C. & Opp, Marcus M. & Harris, Milton, 2013. "Rating agencies in the face of regulation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 46-61.
    20. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charoontham, Kittiphod & Amornpetchkul, Thunyarat (Bam), 2018. "Performance-based payment scheme to hedge against credit rating inflation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 471-479.
    2. Broer, Tobias, 2018. "Securitization bubbles: Structured finance with disagreement about default risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 505-518.
    3. Efing, Matthias, 2015. "Arbitraging the Basel securitization framework: Evidence from German ABS investment," Discussion Papers 40/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Jess N. Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia & John E. Hund, 2017. "Credit Ratings Across Asset Classes: A Long-Term Perspective," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 465-509.
    5. Marques, Manuel O. & Pinto, João M., 2020. "A comparative analysis of ex ante credit spreads: Structured finance versus straight debt finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Thomas Mählmann, 2016. "Market share and risk taking: the role of collateral asset managers in the collapse of the arbitrage CDO market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 273-303, August.
    7. João M. Pinto & Mafalda C. Correia, 2017. "Are Covered Bonds Different from Asset Securitization Bonds?," Working Papers de Gestão (Management Working Papers) 01, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcin Wojtowicz, 2011. "CDOs and the Financial Crisis: Credit Ratings and Fair Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-022/2/DSF 8, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Efing, Matthias & Hau, Harald, 2015. "Structured debt ratings: Evidence on conflicts of interest," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 46-60.
    3. Marques, Manuel O. & Pinto, João M., 2020. "A comparative analysis of ex ante credit spreads: Structured finance versus straight debt finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Brendan Daley & Brett Green & Victoria Vanasco, 2020. "Securitization, Ratings, and Credit Supply," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 1037-1082, April.
    5. Lützenkirchen, Kristina & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2013. "Ratings based capital adequacy for securitizations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5236-5247.
    6. Broer, Tobias, 2018. "Securitization bubbles: Structured finance with disagreement about default risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 505-518.
    7. Efing, Matthias, 2015. "Arbitraging the Basel securitization framework: Evidence from German ABS investment," Discussion Papers 40/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Günter Franke, 2013. "Known Unknowns in Verbriefungen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 65(67), pages 1-34, January.
    9. Wenming Xu & Yan Liu, 2021. "Does reputational capital affect credit rating agencies?: empirical evidence from a natural experiment in China," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 433-468, June.
    10. Anna Bayona & Oana Peia & Razvan Vlahu, 2023. "Credit Ratings and Investments," Working Papers 776, DNB.
    11. Jess N. Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia & John E. Hund, 2017. "Credit Ratings Across Asset Classes: A Long-Term Perspective," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 465-509.
    12. Nelson Camanho & Pragyan Deb & Zijun Liu, 2022. "Credit rating and competition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2873-2897, July.
    13. Jeon, Doh-Shin & Lovo, Stefano, 2013. "Credit rating industry: A helicopter tour of stylized facts and recent theories," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 643-651.
    14. Liu, Yan, 2023. "Essays on credit rating agencies in China," Other publications TiSEM b54b3315-1185-48b8-aaf8-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Thomas Mählmann, 2016. "Market share and risk taking: the role of collateral asset managers in the collapse of the arbitrage CDO market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 273-303, August.
    16. Josephson, Jens & Shapiro, Joel, 2020. "Credit ratings and structured finance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    17. Ashcraft, A. & Goldsmith-Pinkham, P. & Vickery, J., 2010. "MBS Ratings and the Mortgage Credit Boom," Other publications TiSEM 5da00f7a-44c3-4829-903c-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Bae, Kee-Hong & Driss, Hamdi & Roberts, Gordon S., 2019. "Does competition affect ratings quality? Evidence from Canadian corporate bonds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 605-623.
    19. Harald Hau & Sam Langfield & David Marques-Ibanez, 2013. "Bank ratings: what determines their quality? [Bank risk during the financial crisis: do business models matter?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 289-333.
    20. Baghai, Ramin P. & Becker, Bo, 2018. "Non-rating revenue and conflicts of interest," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 94-112.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Collateralized debt obligations; Credit ratings; Fair premia; Structured finance; Rating agencies; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.