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Joint effect of financial fragility and macroeconomic shocks on bank loan losses: Evidence from Europe

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  • Pesola, Jarmo

Abstract

A reduced-form model including nonlinearities is estimated from pooled data from nine European countries during 1982-2004 to show the effects of macroeconomic shocks and financial fragility on bank loan losses. The main ingredients of the model are unanticipated-output and interest-rate shocks estimated from published macroeconomic and naïve forecasts. The model fits the data well, capturing the extremely high levels of loan losses witnessed in different financial crises.

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  • Pesola, Jarmo, 2011. "Joint effect of financial fragility and macroeconomic shocks on bank loan losses: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3134-3144, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:3134-3144
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    4. Gulan, Adam & Haavio, Markus & Kilponen, Juha, 2014. "Kiss me deadly: From Finnish great depression to great recession," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2014, Bank of Finland.
    5. Jokivuolle, Esa & Pesola, Jarmo & Virén, Matti, 2014. "What drives loan losses in Europe?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland.
    6. Jokivuolle, Esa & Pesola, Jarmo & Viren, Matti, 2015. "Why is credit-to-GDP a good measure for setting countercyclical capital buffers?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 117-126.
    7. Chaiporn Vithessonthi, 2016. "The Consequences of Bank Loan Growth: Evidence from Asia," PIER Discussion Papers 19., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2016.
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    9. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2023. "The consequences of bank loan growth: Evidence from Asia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 252-270.
    10. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms," BIS Working Papers 645, Bank for International Settlements.
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    12. Jokivuolle, Esa & Pesola, Jarmo & Virén, Matti, 2014. "What drives loan losses in Europe?," Research Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gulan, Adam & Haavio, Markus & Kilponen, Juha, 2014. "Kiss me deadly: From Finnish great depression to great recession," Research Discussion Papers 24/2014, Bank of Finland.
    15. Isma il Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2017. "A Pooled Mean Group Approach to the Joint Effects of Oil Price Changes and Environmental Risks on Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting the Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 345-351.
    16. Ismail Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2016. "The Moderating Role of Loan Monitoring on the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Non-performing Loans in Association of Southeast Asian Nations Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 402-408.
    17. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Valladares, Matheus & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2021. "Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 358-369.
    18. Ismail Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2016. "The Joint Effects of Oil Price Volatility and Environmental Risks on Non-performing Loans: Evidence from Panel Data of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 522-528.
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