IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v33y2009i4p701-708.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A practical approach to validating a PD model

Author

Listed:
  • Medema, Lydian
  • Koning, Ruud H.
  • Lensink, Robert

Abstract

The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their credit scoring models are performing well. In this paper we take up the challenge to propose and implement a simple validation methodology that can be used by banks to validate their credit risk modelling exercise. We will contextualise the proposed methodology by applying it to a default model of mortgage loans of a commercial bank in the Netherlands.

Suggested Citation

  • Medema, Lydian & Koning, Ruud H. & Lensink, Robert, 2009. "A practical approach to validating a PD model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 701-708, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:701-708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(08)00278-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blum, Jürg M., 2008. "Why 'Basel II' may need a leverage ratio restriction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1699-1707, August.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Chen, Celia, 1996. "Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint A size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 221-241, January.
    3. Bernd Engelmann & Robert Rauhmeier (ed.), 2006. "The Basel II Risk Parameters," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-33087-5, June.
    4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    5. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
    6. J. S. Cramer, 2004. "Scoring bank loans that may go wrong: a case study," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(3), pages 365-380, August.
    7. Dewald, William G & Thursby, Jerry G & Anderson, Richard G, 1986. "Replication in Empirical Economics: The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Project," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 587-603, September.
    8. McCullough, B. D. & McGeary, Kerry Anne & Harrison, Teresa D., 2006. "Lessons from the JMCB Archive," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1093-1107, June.
    9. Stein, Roger M., 2005. "The relationship between default prediction and lending profits: Integrating ROC analysis and loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1213-1236, May.
    10. Dwyer, Douglas W. & Stein, Roger M., 2006. "Inferring the default rate in a population by comparing two incomplete default databases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 797-810, March.
    11. Blochlinger, Andreas & Leippold, Markus, 2006. "Economic benefit of powerful credit scoring," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 851-873, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tsukahara, Fábio Yasuhiro & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Zambrano, Juan Carlos Arismendi, 2016. "Validation of default probability models: A stress testing approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-85.
    2. Rosen, Dan & Saunders, David, 2010. "Risk factor contributions in portfolio credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 336-349, February.
    3. Aussenegg, Wolfgang & Resch, Florian & Winkler, Gerhard, 2011. "Pitfalls and remedies in testing the calibration quality of rating systems," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 698-708, March.
    4. Christopoulos, Andreas D., 2017. "The composition of CMBS risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 215-239.
    5. Douw Gerbrand Breed & Niel van Jaarsveld & Carsten Gerken & Tanja Verster & Helgard Raubenheimer, 2021. "Development of an Impairment Point in Time Probability of Default Model for Revolving Retail Credit Products: South African Case Study," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-22, November.
    6. Clara Cardone-Riportella & Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Anahí Briozzo, 2013. "Analyzing the role of mutual guarantee societies on bank capital requirements for small and medium-sized enterprises," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 142-159, June.
    7. Kroot, Jan & Giouvris, Evangelos, 2016. "Dutch mortgages: Impact of the crisis on probability of default," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 205-217.
    8. Floros, Ioannis & White, Joshua T., 2016. "Qualified residential mortgages and default risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 86-104.
    9. Nehrebecka Natalia, 2018. "An Evaluation of the Discriminatory Power of Selected Polish Bankruptcy Prediction Models As Part of the Validation Process," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 23(4), pages 63-88, December.
    10. Dragoş Bolocan & Cristian Litan, 2011. "Estimating the Probability of Default with Applications in Provisioning the Portfolio of Clients of a Credit Institution," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 271-285, December.
    11. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2016. "Default risk drivers in shipping bank loans," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 71-94.
    12. Christopoulos, Andreas D. & Barratt, Joshua G., 2016. "Credit risk findings for commercial real estate loans using the reduced form," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 228-234.
    13. Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Mues, Christophe, 2016. "An empirical comparison of classification algorithms for mortgage default prediction: evidence from a distressed mortgage market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 427-439.
    14. Kritzinger, Nico & van Vuuren, Gary Wayne, 2021. "Non-capital calibration of bureau scorecards," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 260-271.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    2. Dragoş Bolocan & Cristian Litan, 2011. "Estimating the Probability of Default with Applications in Provisioning the Portfolio of Clients of a Credit Institution," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 271-285, December.
    3. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    4. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2847-2877, August.
    5. Mueller-Langer, Frank & Andreoli-Versbach, Patrick, 2018. "Open access to research data: Strategic delay and the ambiguous welfare effects of mandatory data disclosure," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 20-34.
    6. Kleimeier, S. & Sander, H., 2002. "European financial market integration: evidence on the emergence of a single Eurozone retail banking market," Research Memorandum 060, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    7. Harald Sander & Stefanie Kleimeier, 2006. "Interest Rate Pass‐Through In The Common Monetary Area Of The Sacu Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 215-229, June.
    8. Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc & Marc Sangnier, 2016. "Trust and the Welfare State: the Twin Peaks Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(593), pages 861-883, June.
    9. Andreoli-Versbach, Patrick & Mueller-Langer, Frank, 2014. "Open access to data: An ideal professed but not practised," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1621-1633.
    10. Jamilov, Rustam & Égert, Balázs, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through and monetary policy asymmetry: A journey into the Caucasian black box," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 57-70.
    11. Hens, Thorsten & Jean-Jacques Herings, P. & Predtetchinskii, Arkadi, 2006. "Limits to arbitrage when market participation is restricted," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 556-564, August.
    12. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2022. "Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 361-386.
    13. Agarwal, Vineet & Taffler, Richard, 2008. "Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1541-1551, August.
    14. Sensier, M. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth: evidence in US macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    15. Mark J. McCabe & Frank Mueller-Langer, 2019. "Does Data Disclosure Increase Citations? Empirical Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Leading Economics Journals," JRC Working Papers on Digital Economy 2019-02, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Maurizio Canavari & Andreas C. Drichoutis & Jayson L. Lusk & Rodolfo M. Nayga, Jr., 2018. "How to run an experimental auction: A review of recent advances," Working Papers 2018-5, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    17. Thomas Straubhaar & Marc Suhrcke & Dieter Urban, 2002. "Divergence. Is it Geography?," Development Working Papers 158, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    18. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2016. "On the Usefulness or Lack Thereof of Optimality Criteria for Structural Change Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 782-844, May.
    19. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    20. Charitou, Andreas & Dionysiou, Dionysia & Lambertides, Neophytos & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2013. "Alternative bankruptcy prediction models using option-pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2329-2341.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:701-708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.